535
ACUS03 KWNS 151905
SWODY3
SPC AC 151905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible
Friday into Friday night from the southern and central Plains into
the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cyclonic flow regime will persist from central Canada into the
north-central CONUS, with a leading wave moving quickly out of the
northern Plains during the day on Friday. South of this initial
wave, a belt of moderate midlevel southwesterlies will extend from
the upper MS Valley into the central Plains and northwest Mexico, on
the west side of an upper ridge extending from the lower Great Lakes
across the OH/TN Valleys. Overnight and into Saturday, a strong
upper jet will dig into the northern Rockies, which with large-scale
height falls extending into the northern and central Plains.

At the surface, low pressure associated with the initial wave will
move northeastward across MB/ON, with a cold front from the upper MS
Valley into the central and southern Plains. This boundary may
become nearly stationary from KS into western OK, as southerly winds
ahead of it maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints. Heating should
result in MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, though mid/upper lapse rates will
not be very steep. Still, favorable time of day and sufficient shear
could support a few cells capable of marginal hail during the
afternoon.

Overnight into Saturday morning, 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb flow will
help transport a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints out of TX and into
eastern OK. While near the end of the Day 3 period, this late
arrival of moisture could potentially bolster any ongoing activity.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

$$