352
FXUS63 KEAX 040500
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers/storms, a few severe possible, late afternoon and evening
  as a cold front moves through area.
  - Large hail and damaging winds main storm risks
  - Best chances appear central/eastern KS into western MO

* Some surface smoke potential behind cold front through Thursday
  - Mainly hazy look to sky and minor issues near-surface possible

* Much below normal temperatures settle in Thursday and through the
  weekend as another/reinforcing cold front moves through Friday
  - As much as 10 to 15 degrees below normal
  - Friday likely coolest day

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Objective surface analysis early this afternoon shows the surface
cold front having crossed into NW Missouri and is roughly angled in
an elongated U-shape fashion; arcing to the WNW and ENE from NW
Missouri. Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery also depicts a
compact mid-level shortwave moving into the same area, primarily
accompanied by increased mid-level cloud cover and weak (unlikely
reaching the ground in most cases) radar returns. Otherwise,
synoptically speaking the pattern remains highly amplified with NW
mid-upper level flow established across the central CONUS as a
deepening cutoff low churns into the W/NW Great Lakes Region. It`s
accompanying surface low continues to drift NE into eastern Ontario
while large surface high builds into the northern Plains.

For today, main concern remains focused on the potential for a few
strong to severe storms later this afternoon and evening. HRRR and
other CAM guidance remain largely unchanged in their areal and
timing depictions, suggesting most robust activity from around 5pm
to 10pm LT. So, where and what will this robust activity be? For the
most part, CAMs remain in fair agreement in this regard as well.
Best near-surface moisture return/pooling and convergence remains
expected central/eastern Kansas where southerly surface flow will
largely prevail. Working eastward into western and central Missouri,
surface winds orient more westerly and dew points should be a few
degrees less, making it more difficult to at least initially
convect/be surface based. Instead, activity may be more post frontal
in this area, concentrated more towards 850mb and the top of the air
mass/cold air advection where a ribbon of moisture is indicated
amongst model guidance. Then further eastward toward eastern
Missouri, better synoptic scale lift remains poised to initiate
weak, non-severe convection.

Focusing back toward the best strong/severe potential, areas of
central/eastern Kansas hi-res guidance continues to signal SB/MLCAPE
values >1500-2000 J/kg later this afternoon/evening, excluding the
ever moist/robust NAMnest. Of note, moisture return thus far has
appeared weaker than hi-res guidance previously suggested, but HRRR
remains adamant of achieving ~68 deg Td ahead of initiation, likely
relying on pooling immediately ahead of the front. Vertical wind
profiles remain adequate for organization with increasing mid-level
winds helping yield >35-40 kts 0-6km bulk shear. Hodograph curvature
is best in the immediate vicinity of the front and post frontal,
showing good low level curvature. Moving off the front southward,
wind profiles become less supportive near-surface (curvature) and
aloft (weaker speeds). This suggests strongest organization and
severe potential to be with frontal initiation in Kansas and as this
activity drifts SE, portions of western Missouri. With storm bases
~6kft and dry below, there will be an enhanced wind threat, along
with a hail threat with any supercellular activity as freezing
levels reside around 10kft, modest mid-level lapse rates, and dry
air below the LCL to help limit melting. As hinted earlier,
initiation time ~5pm LT or just after remains anticipated with
strong/severe threat continuing into the evening before nocturnal
cooling/stabilization decreases overall risks. Targeting roughly the
I-70 corridor for this initiation, which does keep the KC Metro at
least initially in play, though risk is greater westward where the
environment and near-surface convergence will be better. Day 1 SPC
Outlook remains in good placement, if not a little aggressive on the
eastward extent at the moment. The heavy rain risk too remains
virtually nil with progressive features and the wider are able to
handle a good amount of rainfall given antecedent conditions.

Post frontal, the well advertised anomalously cold air mass will
begin to settle in. Guidance of all ilks continue to point towards
temperatures around 10 to 15 deg F below normal, which often puts
these temperatures toward the 1 to 2.5 percentiles for this time of
the year. Quickly on Friday, a reinforcing cold front drops through
the Plains as a mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying
developing surface low round the larger Ontario cutoff low. Synoptic
guidance has seen an uptick in precipitation chances and QPF,
primarily in response to deeper and more widespread lift depicted as
the area may reside in the right-entrance region of 100-130kt upper
level jet. Nothing of consequence aside from likely welcome
rainfall. The combination of the reinforcing cold front and
rain/cloud cover will make Friday the coldest day of forecast with
highs in the mid-upper 60s followed by Saturday morning lows in the
mid 40s in most cases. The below normal conditions carry on through
the weekend with highs in the 70s and dry conditions. Coupled with
light winds, it should be quite the pleasant fall (we are in
meteorological fall after all) weekend. By next week, large scale
pattern shifts from NW flow aloft to more zonal and eventually
building ridging and will allow more persistent southerly winds and
increasing 850mb temps to return to the region. This will yield a
gradual warming trend with mid-80s likely by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Wildfire smoke in the near surface layer may lead to reduced
visbilities through the period. Decreasing northerly flow will
transition to south winds throughout the day on Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...BT