285
FXUS63 KEAX 311954
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances, mainly for northern and northwestern MO, continue
  through at least Monday.

- A strong cold front moves through Wednesday with the potential
  for showers and storms along and ahead of the front. The
  threat of severe weather is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Low-level water vapor imagery shows an elongated trough
extending from the western Dakotas into northern MO. Embedded
within this elongated trough were at least three vorticity
maxima. As these areas of vorticity merge and track to the
southeast, and as moisture transport increases overnight,
showers, with a few storms, will become more numerous. This
increase in coverage will most notable across north central and
northwestern MO, where the moisture transport is more focused
and just ahead of the strongest vorticity max. Instability
continues to look weak, with potentially only a few hundred J/kg
of CAPE available. So even with above normal precipitable water
values, the potential for deep convection to maximize those
PWATs isn`t there. Additionally, the area has been dry recently,
leading to higher flash flood guidance (FFG) values. 1-hour FFG
for northern MO is higher than our total forecast QPF. So with
the lack of deep convection and higher FFG values, the threat of
flooding is very low. Precipitation chances will wind down late
Monday night or early Tuesday, as the shortwave trough shifts
to the east of the area.

By midweek, a strong upper-level system will move into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Locally, temperatures warm back
into the upper 70s and lower 80s ahead of the cold front associated
with the strong upper-level system. Low-level moisture is lacking,
with dewpoints only expected to climb into the lower 60s. And
strongly veered, westerly winds won`t be able to advect better
moisture into the area. So CAPE will continue to be a limiting
factor. That said, we may still see MLCAPE range from 1000-2000
J/kg. While the strongest shear looks post-frontal, there may
be enough overlap in CAPE/shear profiles, as the front is moving
through, to support some strong thunderstorms. This will depend
on the timing of the front which varies from the far southern
CWA near convective initiation to the vicinity of the MO river
at CI.

Temperatures have moderated since yesterday`s forecast for Thursday
and Friday mornings. It still looks like well below normal
temperatures can be expected but more in the 10-15 degree range
rather than the 15-20+ degree range. This looks like it`s a
result of the coolest and driest air shifting into IA and IL and
light winds vs calm winds over the forecast area, limiting the
strength of the radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected initially. But conditions will
likely trend to MVFR or potentially IFR late tonight into
tomorrow morning. There is a 30-50% chance of ceilings dropping
below 3000 ft by 12Z tomorrow, with the higher probabilities
north and west. These increase through the morning with
probabilities of ceilings below 1000 ft increasing as well late
in the forecast. Have trended to low MVFR, 1500 ft AGL, ceilings
around 12Z. This time could vary but the trend will be as the
morning progresses, ceilings become lower, especially across NE
KS and NW MO, roughly west of I-35.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB