983
FXUS63 KEAX 092019
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
219 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions today with gusts around 25-35 MPH
  anticipated. Gusts increase overnight and tomorrow morning to
  35-45 with some isolated 50+ MPH possible as a front moves
  through. There are some uncertainties about wind gusts
  depending on if the push of colder air is able to fully reach
  the surface.

- Above normal temperatures today dip back to seasonal normals
  Wednesday and Thursday before turning colder with below
  freezing highs anticipated this weekend.

- Small chances for rain/snow tonight and later in the week for
  far NE MO as waves pass to the north. Accumulations are
  expected to be minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wind is going to be the theme of today and tomorrow as a compressed
pressure gradient combined with enhanced midlevel flow and
anticipated diurnal mixing accelerates southwesterly winds with
expected gusts of 25-35 MPH across the region. As of early this
afternoon, wind gusts have not manifested as anticipated likely due
to greater than anticipated cloud cover across northern MO. This has
inhibited solar mixing preventing the additional momentum transfer
to get gusts going. Eventually, the pressure gradient force and
turbulent mixing will create gusty conditions, the magnitude may not
be a substantial as initially anticipated. Regardless, the sustained
southwesterly flow around 15-20 MPH has pushed warm, southern CONUS
air into the region lifting temperatures into the 50s for most sans
far NE MO who will still see temperatures in the high 40s.

Unfortunately, the warm looks to be short lived as a wave
progressing its way across the Upper Midwest drops a cold front
across the region which moves through the area overnight into early
Wednesday morning. An even tighter pressure gradient resides behind
this cold front which abrupt turns winds northwesterly funneling
colder air into the region. Turbulent mixing combined with the
nocturnal inversion could enhance this pressure gradient, especially
vertically, and accelerate gusts to 35-45 MPH even approaching 50
MPH across far northern MO. Some uncertainties in the forecast
continue as ensemble guidance remains divergent on gust
probabilities. The NBM is fairly pessimistic only keeping far NE MO
with chances of advisory level winds. Meanwhile the HREF (which
ensembles several CAM models) brings 80-90% chances of advisory
level winds nearly to the MO River. Confidence currently lies
somewhere in between. The dynamic nature of the cold air push
combined with the multiple model forecasts of a stacked jet streak
moving through the region do lean more towards the HREF solution.
This could facilitate momentum transfer downward from 650mb-700mb to
the surface. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas
where 45+ MPH gusts are most likely. Isolated gusts in excess of 45
MPH are possible elsewhere throughout the night. As the jet streak
transits the region through the morning, winds gradually decelerate
back to more nominal levels by midday Wednesday. Usually with such a
strong kinematic gradient, one would think precipitation would be
present; however, much of the antecedent air mass ahead of the front
is dry and stable. There is a growing signal from the CAMs across
far NE MO that could squeeze out some sprinkles/flurries ahead of
the front overnight, but precipitation expectations remain minimal.

Cold air streams in behind the front Wednesday with highs expected
to be about 10 degrees colder than today. Portions of far NE MO may
only barely make it above freezing. Cold air continues to stream in
through the end of the week as a cold Canadian high pressure system
works its way southward. High temperatures descend into the 30s
Friday before reaching the upper 20s by Sunday. The pattern does
look to slowly shift by early next week as flow is anticipated to
return southerly opening warm air advection back up to the region.

The precipitation outlook for the period remains rather minimal.
Northeast MO could see some light precipitation tonight as well as
passing snow flurries Thursday afternoon, but more likely Saturday
as multiple midlevel waves pass to the north of the region. NBM
probabilities of accumulating snow range from 10-20 percent to 20-40
percent respectively. Extended guidance does show the potential for
the atmosphere to get a little more active next week; however, a
general northward shift of the polar jet northward does put the
region more in the warm sector which 1) leads to chances for above
normal temperatures next week and 2) would lean prevailing
precipitation type being rain sans post cold frontal activity where
snow is possible. Guidance does not go out far enough to confidently
forecast chances for a white Christmas, but a prognosis of increased
activity does pose the potential for one.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Breezy VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the
forecast period. Southwest winds continue to accelerate
expecting to gust around 20-30 knots through the afternoon.
Gusts are expected to dissipate slightly, but continue through
the overnight. A front moves through shifting winds from SW to
NW with gusts increasing behind the front. A brief window of
MVFR CIGs is possible with the frontal passage, but sky coverage
is expected to open up as the front moves away. Gusts also
weaken towards the end of the period becoming more nominal
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-032-033.
KS...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel