308
FXUS63 KEAX 161803
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
103 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Well above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s
  continue through Saturday
  - At this point in the season, to around 15 deg above normal

* Next chance for thunderstorms arrives late Friday afternoon
  into Friday night and may continue into Saturday
  - A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible
  - Main Threats: Strong wind 50 to 60 mph and hail up to
    quarter size
  - Where: Primarily eastern KS and western MO

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today a mid-level trough over the Great Basin region will move into
the eastern Rockies. This will shift the upper level ridge, that has
resided over the area the past couple days, just east of the area.
This may result in subtle height falls, however a surface front
associated with the upper level trough will move into the western
Plains acting to tighten the pressure gradient across the forecast
area. So, despite the subtle height falls, strengthening WAA will
still allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. Tomorrow the mid-
level trough will move into the northern Plains. This will force a
weak cold front into the area during the late afternoon and evening.
Continued WAA out ahead of this front will allow highs to rise into
the low to mid 80s. Thunderstorms are expected to develop out of
this front in an area that will be conducive for a few strong to
perhaps isolated severe storm. Instability, off the more unstable
NAM suggests MUCAPE values between 1000-1500J/Kg with effective
shear in the 35-40kt range however, limiting factors are modest
moisture with dewpoints in the upper 50s as well as mushy lapse
rates. All that being said, storms capable of gusty winds to 50-60
mph and hail up to the size of a quarter would be the main threat
with any stronger storm. Storms will continue to press slowly east
Friday night as the cold front slowly moves across the area before
exiting Saturday morning. Shower and storm chances will continue on
Saturday (with the best chances across the eastern CWA with PoPs of
50-70%) as a secondary broad upper level trough digs from the Plains
into the Midwest. Highs Saturday, will still reach the mid 70s to
lower 80s as CAA lags well behind the front. CAA will eventually
filter into the area Saturday night with surface high pressure
building into the area on Sunday which will bring a very normal mid-
October day with highs in the low to mid 60s.

The begin of next work week will feature a rapid and brief warmup as
a upper level trough moves from the eastern Rockies into the Plains
states. This will force a cold front through the Plains with local
area wedged between the departing surface high and front. Modest WAA
ahead of the front will aid in highs rising into the low to mid 70s.
The cold front moves through the area Monday night however, how much
moisture will be available for this system is uncertain. The GFS
depicts mainly a dry frontal passage whereas the EC does produce
showers consequently the NBM has left us with spurious slight to
chance PoPs (15-30% chance) through the Monday night/Tuesday period.
Behind the front on Tuesday, highs will fall back into the mid 60s
to near 70. Surface high pressure looks to build into the region
midweek with highs on Wednesday in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with clear skies
giving way to scattered upper level clouds by late afternoon.
South southeasterly winds around 12 knots with occasional gusts
up to 20 to 22 knots should continue through much of the
afternoon before relaxing by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BMW