838
FXUS63 KEAX 151134
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal conditions today with highs mostly in the 70s.

- Slightly elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon primarily
north of I-70.

- Temperatures trend cooler starting Sunday, with precipitation
chances (20-50%) returning Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Another day of above normal conditions are expected to start the
weekend with highs mostly in the 70s this afternoon. Broad mid to
upper level ridging remains situated over the southern U.S. (mainly
TX). There is a closed mid to upper level low just to the west of
the Hudson Bay region and a cut-off low just off the west Coast near
CA. For today, the mid to upper level parent low just to the west of
the Hudson Bay will push a dry cold front through the area starting
this morning. As a result, winds will gradually shift more northerly
and gust to around 15-20 mph later this morning through the
afternoon. This increased, dry northerly windflow will allow
relative humidity values to drop into the low to mid 30s yielding
slightly elevated fire weather concerns primarily for areas north of
I-70. Later this evening into tonight, skies clearing out coupled
with decent cold air advection (CAA) will allow early morning lows
to cool much closer to seasonal averages. Lows for tomorrow morning
will range in the upper 30s to low 40s which happens to be 5-10
degrees above normal.

For the second half of this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s as a surface high descends from
the Northern Plains on the backside of the cold front. By the start
of the work-week, the previously-mentioned cut-off low off the west
coast of the U.S. will have been nudged back into the flow by a much
stronger mid to upper level trough off the coast of British
Columbia. After the cut-low comes ashore, it will eject a shortwave
that moves through the flow resulting in precip chances (20-50%)
starting Monday afternoon into the evening. The most favorable areas
seem to be along the eastern/northeastern fringes of our CWA (areas
east of a line from Putnam to Pettis counties). Despite the
sufficient amount of shear, no severe is anticipated given the very
limited amount of instability (MUCAPE values up to 300 J/kg). A few
isolated, sub-severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, however
mostly showers are expected. QPF totals remain below a tenth of an
inch suggesting another low impact event.

On Tuesday, the mid to upper level trough that was off the western
coast of British Columbia will have traveled south/southeast near
Baja CA. Simultaneously, it will eject multiple shortwaves through
the flow resulting in multiple chances for precip for the second
half of next week. As that system moves through the flow heading
into the weekend, another system moves in quickly on its heels
suggesting the potential for additional precip chances lingering
into the week after. As far as temperatures, expect highs to
gradually cool next week with multiple systems and precip chances.
For now, seasonal temperatures seem to be the trend Friday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the duration of the TAF
period. As a cold front moves through the area winds will
gradually shift out of the south/southwest to the north.
Occasional wind gusts ranging from around 15-18 kts can be
expected starting late this morning into the afternoon on the
backside of the front. Winds will weaken as diurnal mixing
diminishes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier