


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
702 FXUS63 KEAX 112304 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 604 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through much of the next week. * Small chance of precipitation Monday as a cool front moves through the region. Precipitation generally looks to be 0.1" or less in most locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Amplified pattern across the lower 48 with deepening trough across the Pacific NW, a trough across the eastern US and a upper level ridge extending from west Texas into the Upper Midwest. The upper ridge will lead to well above normal temperatures ahead of the approaching trough from the the Pacific NW. Pressure gradient is increasing across the area and will likely keep surface winds in the 5-10 knot range through the overnight. These winds will keep the atmosphere mildly mixed, and with 925 hpa in the 17-19 C range, expect temperature to remain 10-15 degrees above normal. High temperatures will be closer to 15-20 degrees above normal on Sunday as thermal ridge builds into the central plains with high temperatures in the 80s. Stronger winds aloft are expected to mix to the surface creating gusty conditions through the afternoon hours. Open wave trough approaching from the west is pushed north as it works east, but trailing cold front is expected to build south through the region early Monday morning. Limited instability/shear is expected to limit shower potential. Ensemble probabilities rapidly decrease for rainfall amounts above 0.1". Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but shifts east Wednesday leading to warming temperatures as the ridge tries to recover. Models still continue to hint at a few ridge riders throughout the week, but the focus for any precipitation looks to be largely north (Iowa and Nebraska north). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Winds remain in the 5-10 kt range overnight, generally from the south to southeast. Winds then increase and become gusty late tomorrow morning and persist through the afternoon. Winds trend southerly and increase to 10-15kts with gusts of 25kts to as much as 30 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...CDB