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FXUS63 KEAX 172309
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon through tonight. The
  main threats will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

- Our first chance of excessive heat arrives on Friday and will
  continue through the weekend. Heat index values on Friday and
  Saturday are forecast to reach 98-105F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers and storms have already developed in central and eastern KS
since this morning and have gradually shifted to the east towards
our area. A surface front stretched across central KS is the main
lifting mechanism for activity this afternoon and into the night.
There is a marginal threat for some strong to severe storms as early
as this afternoon given the 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kts
of shear. Over the next several hours, storms are expected to slowly
develop to the east. The main threats will be damaging winds and
hail. Steady storm motions combined with PWATs ranging from 1.5-1.9
inches suggest the potential for efficient rain-producing storms.
Heavy rainfall at this time seems more likely to the west-
southwest of our area.

Through 7PM-10PM, an H850 low-level jet (LLJ) will nose into our
area increasing shear and instability significantly increasing the
severe potential. Storms are anticipated to continue to develop
along the aforementioned boundary in central KS and transition to a
more linear MCS as it tracks to the east. As these storms enter MO
they will be entering an environment with 40-50 kts of shear which
will aid in storm organization and 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE which
aid in maintaining the progression of the line. The primary threats
will be damaging winds especially along the bowing segment of the
line. If we can maintain shear/cold pool balance on the line there
could be a risk of a brief spinup tornado along the line. There is
still some uncertainty remaining as the most recent runs of CAMs
have been trending the most favorable area for severe weather
farther south toward southeast KS/southwestern MO. Additionally, the
HRRR has been consistent in trailing storms behind the line moving
through.

With respect to flooding concerns, PWATs exceeding 2 inches will
exist ahead of the line moving in, just above the climatological max
for this time of year. Given these conditions, if the line slows
this could lead to river and flash flood concerns. Additionally,
showers and storms are anticipated to linger through Wednesday
morning before eventually fizzling out as the LLJ shifts farther to
the east.

Wednesday afternoon into the evening, the cold front associated with
the final shortwave pushes through the area producing chances for
thunderstorms for central into southern MO. There is a potential for
a few strong to severe storms near Howard, Henry, and Pettis
counties but the better severe environment seems to be to the
southeast of our area. Recent CAMs have kept the line of convection
farther to the southeast out of our area. For now, the primary
hazard seems to be damaging winds with a secondary threat of some
hail. SPC has placed areas southeast of a line from Macon to
Harrisonville in a slight risk.

For Friday and into the weekend, stout ridging builds into the area
suggesting warm dry conditions. Triple digit heat indices are
forecasted ranging from 98-105 degrees F for the first time this
year. Smaller temperature spreads with ensemble suites continue to
suggest growing confidence in these higher temperatures. Heat
headlines may be necessary moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
overnight- most concentrated south of I-70 as surface low
pressure across central KS shifts east. Could see some lower
ceilings towards sunrise as the low center approaches, with
lower ceilings scouring out as northwest flow becomes more
consistent tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT