923
FXUS63 KEAX 142043
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and somewhat muggy this afternoon. Slight chance for
  showers and storms during the evening. Best chances south of
  the KC metro along I-49 corridor.

- Chances for showers and storms continue Sunday. Coverage is
  expected to be fairly scattered; however, a few small
  thunderstorm complexes are possible. Uncertainty remains high.

- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
  week. The most significant chances being Tuesday
  afternoon/evening into Wednesday.

- Heat builds throughout the week. Heat indicies approach 100F
  Tuesday across west central MO with more widespread near 100F
  heat index values late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The atmospheric picture is dominated by three features: a longwave
trough across the Ohio River Valley, a shortwave trough across north
central KS , and an expansive ridge across the western CONUS. The
mid CONUS shortwave is of the largest concern for our CWA where a
large MCS progressed across central KS this morning. This complex of
thunderstorm followed a CAPE gradient which set up NW to SE from
Salina to just east of Wichita. The LLJ which helped fuel this MCS
dissipated through the morning hours cutting off flow into the system
resulting in the rain dissipating. The parent short wave slowed its
progress and is barely moving eastward across NE KS.

The shortwave slowly meanders into the region this evening with
cyclonic vorticity advection aloft. This adds some upper level lift
while a subtle surface boundary moves eastward toward the MO/KS
border. This suggests chances for some showers possibly a
thunderstorm this evening/overnight. CAMs have been pessimistic
about precipitation. The exception is the RAP which does develop
precipitation all the way into western MO. Supporting this pessimism
is a large cold pool that was radiating from the remnant MCS which
has stabilized the low levels and enhanced a capping inversion over
the western part of the region. This leans forecast confidence
towards much of the area remaining dry tonight. CAMs do develop
isolated convection south of the KC metro along the I-49 corridor
where the environment isn`t as worked over. Any shower and
thunderstorm development is expected later this evening toward
sunset.

The weather picture beyond this evening becomes much more murky. A
lot of this is due to the many subtleties in the pattern greatly
affect the forecast results. The primary cause of this is embedded
shortwaves circulating the high to the west and entering the
central flow. This is further complicated by generally weak flow at
the surface combined with outflow waves from antecedent MCS systems
around the region overnight tonight into Sunday. This result in
fairly chaotic kinematics that models resolve in their own special
ways. Comparing the HRRR, RAP, and NAMnest, each bring 3 different
solutions for storm development all reliant on the behavior of storms
earlier in their respective model runs. Where all models agree is
that warm air and moisture continue to reside in the area. PWAT
values around 1.5" and a saturated vertical column create a
favorable environment for the development of showers and storms.
Like today, the larger inhibitor of storms is the behavior of the
cold pools of these complexes. Ironically these can both act as a
catalyst and an inhibitor to further convection depending on their
strength and propagation. If storms do form, coverage remains fairly
scattered and is not expected to completely wash out any Fathers Day
plans. CAMs do seem to suggest multiple small complexes of showers
and thunderstorms, but guidance gets a bit lost as these complexes
start interacting with each other. Weak surface flow and expansive
upper level support does little to help narrow down the most likely
outcomes. Model solutions range from scattered convection around the
entire EAX CWA to scattered convection completely missing the EAX
CWA. Where there is confidence is that chances for showers and
thunderstorms exist through the day tomorrow with potentially the
strongest storms being during the afternoon. CAPE remains strongest
along the MO/KS border where an isolated storm could make a run at
severe thresholds if it is able to fully tap into the
convective available potential energy.

Tuesday into Wednesday presents the best opportunity for substantial
convection. A strong shortwave perturbs the relatively zonal
northern flow encouraging a leeward trough across western KS. The
LLJ and surface southerly flow strengthens pushing warm air and
moisture northward. This may present our first opportunity for 100F
heat index values with areas south of the US-50 corridor ascend
toward that threshold. Meanwhile, at the exit region of the low
level jet, a MCS traverses NE into IA and looks to follow a warm
front and CAPE gradient that sets up across the MO/IA border. The
cold side of this system looks rather weak in comparison. Models do
not generate as much cold frontogenesis which brings uncertainty to
the southern propagation and strength of storms over time. If cold
frontogenesis remains weak, showers and storms may not extend too
far south from the parent MCS. If a strong cold front forms, it
brings more chances for strong to severe storms as it would act as a
significant lifting mechanism across a favorable convective
environment. CAPE, shear, and lapse rates are favorable for all
severe hazards; however, the late evening to overnight timing favors
damaging winds, hail, and very heavy rainfall to be the primary
hazards.

Over the course of the entire forecast period, broad scale southerly
flow continues the push of heat and moisture into the region.
Temperatures for today (Saturday) climb into the mid to upper 80s
with dew points in the upper 60s. This brings a slightly muggy
feeling to the air. Temperatures and heat indices (lower 90s) is not
enough for any excessive heat, but it could be hazardous to sensitive
populations especially as this is the start of the first multi-day
stint of heat continuing into next week. Temperatures and heat index
values slowly climb through the week finishing the week in the low
90s with heat index values near 100F. It is important as the summer
season quickly approaches to make preparations for heat and ensure
you take precautions to recognize and prevent heat illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some SCT low
clouds pass by the terminals through the afternoon. A storm
system encroaches from the west, but is RA is anticipated to
remain to the west. Lowered VFR CIGs are expected, and an
isolated SHRA is possible. Confidence remains too low to
include SHRA at this time. There is also a chances for some
FG/BR in the morning; however, that will be highly condition on
the behavior of the storm system as it moves my through the
overnight.

Conditions across central MO remain MVFR as a separate low
pressure system continues to migrate eastward. Categories are
expected to improve through the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel