158
FXUS63 KEAX 080639
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
139 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of showers and thunderstorms are moving through the region.
  Heavy rainfall is already occurring with 0.5-0.75 inches of
  accumulation in a few minutes. Some flash flooding is
  possible.

- Additional thunderstorms are anticipated mainly south of I-70
  starting this afternoon through the overnight. Some strong to
  severe storms are possible with damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall. Flooding becomes a more present threat, especially
  if storms train over the same areas and this morning`s
  rainfall.

- Drier and cooler conditions expected starting early next week
  with the next appreciable chance for storms being the end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A veering low level jet is trying to create a MCV across far eastern
Kansas. Over the course of the next few hours, the LLJ is expected
shift from southerly to more southwesterly. This looks to steer
storms to a more easterly track as well as fill in the line across
SE KS and western MO. Instability has remained lower than
anticipated which has lowered the immediate severe threat and the
strong demarcation in unstable air along the MO/KS state line adds
uncertainty to how far east storms might progress. However, PWATs
above 1.5 inches and plenty of shear across the area look to
maintain thunderstorms and bring heavy rainfall across Kansas and
Missouri over the rest of tonight. An isolated strong wind gust
cannot be ruled out both from an embedded stronger cell or, more
likely, in the wake of the system. Already some observations have
shown 0.5-0.75 inches of rain accumulating over 15-20 minutes within
heavy downpours. Flash flooding in urban areas and along creeks and
stream is possible.

These storms should vacate the region around sunrise yielding a warm
and humid Saturday across the region. High temperatures this
afternoon range from the low to mid-80s north of I-70 and mid to
high 80s south of I-70. Dew points look to hover in the upper 60s to
low 70s making it feel fairly muggy out there during the afternoon.
This funneling of moisture is thanks in part to dueling high
pressure system across the upper Plains and Gulf creating a stark
boundary situated across I-70. This warm front will play a key role
in the development of more showers and thunderstorms this evening.
Isentropic ascent enhanced by a streak of southerly flow across NE
OK and a shortwave trough aloft creates an environment which may
develop showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday evening
continuing into Sunday morning. While there is certainly enough
instability with CAPE values potentially exceeding 2000-3000 J/kgK.
However, model vertical profiles show a decent CAP over the region
which combined with the lack of substantial low level forcing and
shear, may limit the development of showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon/early evening. While the severe weather threat
remains marginal, if a discrete cell is able to develop, it may be
capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.
Overnight, the surface convergence gets enhanced as the exit region
of the LLJ nudges into the Ozarks overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms congeal into a complex along the warm front. PWAT
values over 1.5 to 2 inches suggest another opportunity for heavy
efficient rainfall. Models project eastward storm motions along the
warm front and general warm frontal ascent creates a possibility for
training storms along the warm front. This presents a favorable
environment for flooding especially if storms train over the same
areas as these early Saturday morning storms.

The midlevel high builds southward Sunday bringing cooler less humid
conditions to start the week. Highs regress back to the upper 70s
and low 80s. The overall pattern looks fairly quiet until Tuesday
when a large trough traverses the upper Midwest which may bring some
precipitation chances to the area. As of now, it keeps rain to the
north. This fairly quiet weather pattern persist until the end of
the week which shows the most substantial chances for showers and
storms over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As showers and thunderstorms continue to move over the area, expect
reduced visibilities, strong variable winds, and increased cloud
coverage. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last until
around 11Z. Winds will shift to the north by Saturday evening and
may gust with diurnal mixing. VFR conditions are expected by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier