431
FXUS63 KEAX 272318
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday morning, and again
  on Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.

- Locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible, as well as a few
  strong storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts on
  Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures expected for Monday behind a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Generally weak, zonal westerly flow at the 500 mb level is in
place over our region this afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface,
a weak frontal boundary remains across far northern Missouri,
which connects to a surface low over the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Convection is ongoing across much of the Ozarks into
eastern Missouri near St. Louis, but our CWA remains convection
free aside from a couple small showers near Boonville. A few
isolated showers may be possible later this afternoon, but HRRR
guidance has been less bullish on this on recent runs.
Otherwise, temperatures should top out in the upper 80s to lower
90s by mid to late afternoon, with heat indices in the lower to
mid 90s under a scattered cu field.

Heading into tomorrow, an upper shortwave trough is progged to
enter into the Northern Plains, although weak zonal westerly
flow should continue over Kansas and Missouri. 850 mb flow
should turn more SSW, and southerly surface flow should
increase slightly. While some diurnally driven pop up showers
and storms cannot be ruled out, primarily closer to the Ozarks
and central Missouri, generally dry conditions should prevail
through the daytime hours, with hot (lower 90s) and humid
conditions across the CWA. Better chances (30% to 60%) for
showers/storms arrives overnight Saturday into Sunday morning,
and with PWATs around 2", any shower/storm that develops should
be very efficient rain makers. Thus, WPC has introduced a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall to the southern two thirds
of the CWA through 7 AM Sunday. As we move into Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night, the upper trough across the Northern Plains
heads eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley, becoming a bit
more amplified in the process, and sending a cold front toward
our region from the northwest. This will potentially generate
another round of showers and thunderstorms (PoPs increasing to
60% to 80% for Sunday evening). Copious instability and moisture will
be present, but generally weak wind shear (only up to 15 to 20
knots of 0-6 km bulk shear). A few strong to severe storms will
be possible Sunday afternoon/evening/night, with damaging wind
gusts being the primary hazard. Additionally, with PWATs around
2" (12z NAM even shows a corridor of 2.2"+ PWATs on Sunday
afternoon/evening), locally moderate to heavy rain will yet
again be possible, and WPC has our entire CWA within a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall.

The cold front should slowly pass through the region from
northwest to southeast by Monday morning, with any lingering
convection exiting to the southeast by mid to late Monday
afternoon. High temps for Monday afternoon are only forecast to
reach the mid 80s. Dry conditions are favored for Monday night
through Wednesday, with gradually warming temperatures. Highs
are forecast to return to the lower 90s by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Diurnal CU
will dissipate in the next 1-2 hours with some high-level cloud
cover streaming north into the area from storms in northeastern
OK. Tomorrow, diurnal CU develop late in the morning and persist
through the end of the forecast. For now, it looks far more
likely to remain dry at the terminals than to see any diurnally
driven showers/storms. Winds look to be light from the south
through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...CDB