504
FXUS63 KEAX 051849
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
149 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm and breezy day today with wind gusts around 25-35 MPH
  through the afternoon...leading to slightly elevated fire weather
  concerns.

- Showers and storms are expected to form primarily across northeast
  KS and northwest MO tonight. Very low-end chances for severe
  weather. An isolated severe wind gust will be the primary threat.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances become more widespread Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday. Severe weather chances remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Another warm and breezy day today as mid to upper level ridging
resides over the eastern U.S. and troughing entering the northern
Great Plains. At the surface, a high pressure is centered just off
the north Atlantic coast near NJ with a low and its partnering cold
front over the U.S./Canada border near MN. With lower pressure to
our north and higher pressure to our east, an increased pressure
gradient coupled with sufficient mixing and southerly winds will
allow for another warm breezy day. Above normal temperatures will
continue today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Precip chances return later tonight into early tomorrow morning as
the cold front associated with the low to our north continues to
track to the east. The hi-res model consensus suggests showers and
storms entering northwest MO during 9PM-12AM tonight. The
progression of the storms seems very gradual due to the weak flow
aloft. Short-term guidance has the northeast to southwest oriented
line of showers and storms reaching the KC Metro sometime during the
late morning/afternoon where it appears to stall out. For now, the
best chances (65-85%) for showers and storms will be for northeast
KS and northwest MO (areas near Atchison [MO], Holt, and Nodaway
counties). Chances for severe weather still seem very limited given
the weak instability (below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) and overall
unfavorable severe storm environment. Although, 25-35 kts of shear
may allow storms to organize and linger into the afternoon. A few,
isolated severe gusts will be possible as storms collapse mainly in
extreme northwest MO. PWATs ranging above the 90th percentile for
this time of year and almost 10k warm cloud layers suggest the
potential for a few isolated heavy downpours. Widespread flooding
concerns remain low given the high FFG values due to recent dry
conditions. With the front stalling out and increased cloud coverage
from showers and storms, there is some uncertainty with high
temperatures. Above normal high temperatures (highs in the mid to
upper 80s) could persist south of the front depending on the amount
of cloud coverage. Areas north of the front will likely be closer to
seasonal temperatures ranging from the low 70s to low 80s.

Late Monday into Tuesday, additional chances (40-70%) for showers
and storms persist with the trailing H850 front entering the area,
collocated with a weak H500 vort max moving through the area. The
severe potential remains limited with weak instability, but once
again, a decent amount of shear should help storms organize and
linger possibly through the predawn hours. Showers and storms will
track to the southeast through the area as they decay during the
morning hours. Sometime Tuesday morning, the surface front will have
made it through the area ushering in a much more seasonal air mass.
Highs for Tuesday will range in the low 60s to low 70s. Areas north
of HWY-36 will likely be on the lower end of that range as the cold
front will have passed through those locations first. However, these
seasonal temperatures do not last for long. Going into the weekend,
mid to upper level ridging will allow temperatures to begin warming
again, returning us above seasonal averages. A few shortwaves
embedded within the flow move through the area providing a few low-
end precipitation chances for the second half of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period with southerly gusty winds
through the afternoon ranging from 20-27 kts. Winds will weaken
later this evening into tonight. Frontal passage will bring
chances for showers and storms late tomorrow morning. For now,
left -TSRA in a PROB30 group for the KSTJ, KMCI, and KMKC as
there is low confidence in how far south the front will push.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier