617
FXUS63 KEAX 282142
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Large winter storm system moves into the region this evening and
  through Saturday. Greatest snowfall amounts anticipated across NE
  Missouri and as you approach the Iowa-Missouri border and
  northward.
  - Winter Storm Warning NE Missouri
  - Winter Weather Advisory far NW/N and parts of NE Missouri
  - Mainly cold rain to brief wintry mixes elsewhere

* Seasonably cool temperatures give way to even colder temps by
  Sunday and into early next week. Coldest temps of the season.
  - Highs in 20s Sun/Mon
  - Lows single digits to teens Sun/Mon/Tue AM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Quiet, but cool/cold conditions of recent days have begun to give
way to major changes as a sizable winter storm system begins to move
off the Front Range and into the Plains this evening. Currently, the
leading mid-level bands of light precipitation have overspread
portions of the area and up into Nebraska/Iowa. Locally, little to
no precipitation has yet to reach the ground due to ample dry air
below any falling precipitation. Not the case in Nebraska/Iowa but
better there than here so to speak. Conditions into the early
evening will be highlighted by gradually increasing SE winds and
precipitation chances. Initially as the column continues to
saturate, wet bulbing process remains poised to see initial light
snow or wintry mixes predominantly from around I-70 northward. Only
light accumulations expected with this activity as the bulk of
QPF/precipitation moves in after 06z Sat/tonight as the parent
system.

By the overnight, the mid-upper level PV anomaly/wave will begin to
push off the Rockies and too push the associated surface low out
into the Plains. Hi-res and general synoptic guidance remain in good
agreement with a surface/low level low path initially along the
KS/OK border before turning NE across eastern Kansas and into
central/northern Missouri. As this progression occurs, low level
moisture advection will rapidly increase across the the Plains,
including >40-50kt 850mb winds from TX up through Iowa. This yields
impressive model QPF, approaching 1.25-1.50" through the event.
Initially sporadic/limited precipitation chances rapidly increase
and overspread the area overnight as the aforementioned strong
moisture advection and general WAA (isentropic lift) arrive and
further saturate the column as well as deeper low-mid level lift
driven by the approaching mid-upper level wave. With the increasing
number of hi-res model guidance available, confidence has broadly
increased with regards to the areas poised to see the greatest/most
impactful snowfall and the general location of the rain/snow
transition. As with any winter storm system, that transition line
does remain in flux some as a degree either way will indeed shift it
north/south a number of miles. With this iteration, it has not
shifted much, remaining around/north of Maryville to Bethany to
Macon. Suffice it to say as well, the GFS solution (which remains
too dry in dew points and too far south with snow) has been voted
off the island.

With regards to snowfall amounts, a few items to consider.
Sustained and strong isentropic lift and strong moisture
advection lends towards a broader area of precipitation and
decent precipitation rates vs something more transient or
banded. Much points to SLRs on the lower (and wetter) side with
a fairly shallow DGZ, strong winds (fracturing), and near
isothermal portions of the sounding right around/just below
freezing. Regardless, models have remained quite consistent in
outputting upper single digit SLRs (reasonable) that yield as
much as 6 to 8 inches or more in the far NE CWA and more as you
work northward into Iowa or over into northern Illinois. As
hinted above, there will be a pretty tight gradient for
rain/snow, which will be gradually lifting northward late in the
overnight tonight and Saturday as the surface low drifts NE out
of SE Kansas and into/through Missouri. This may eventually
push all rain up to the Iowa broader for areas west of US-63.
This makes forecast snowfall amounts in those areas somewhat
tricky and dependent on when measured or noticed. Regardless,
there will be periods of unpleasant conditions and travel in
those areas. Travel may be hazardous to extremely difficult
across NE Missouri and into areas north where moderate to heavy
wet snow is expected to prevail throughout most or all the
event. As such, headlines have been tweaked slightly in
conjunction with neighbors, adding NW Missouri to the Winter
Weather Advisory due to concerns for initial snow to wintry mix
(even brief glaze of ice) and adding Mercer and Sullivan
counties to the Winter Storm Warning with continued potential
for 5"+ for portions of those counties.

Outside the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning areas
(southward), there may be some initial wintry mixes, but primarily a
cold rain will develop across those areas this evening/overnight and
through Saturday. This includes the KC Metro area. By the evening,
the surface low begins to exit the area and a cold frontal passage
will begin to usher in the coldest air of the season. As this does
so, while precipitation will be cut off fairly quickly, a short
window of light snow may accompany this change as well. More notable
will be the temperatures dropping for Sunday and into early week
with highs in the 20s and lows in the upper single digits to teens.

The large scale pattern becomes briefly zonal at this point too, but
is short lived as another mid-upper level shortwave drops through
the Mountain West. Guidance has now been in fair agreement the last
couple of cycles on the location of this feature, yielding
increasingly likely light snowfall accumulations across parts of the
area, currently looking to be in the neighborhood of up to a couple
inches Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Initial VFR conditions will give way to degrading flight
conditions after 00z. This includes periodically gusty SSE
winds >20kts and ceilings falling to MVFR between 00z and 06z
and IFR overnight. Precipitation chances rapidly increase after
00z as well, and likely to remain more often than not much of
the overnight, so have prevailing -RA (no frozen precip expected
at TAF sites for this issuance) through latter half of the TAF
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ001>005-015-024-025-033.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ006>008-016-017.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis