448
FXUS63 KEAX 140359
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain chances (up to 40%) shift toward W/NW areas by this
  evening and overnight.

* Warming temperatures warm back into the low to mid 80s by
  Wednesday and continue through Friday
  - At this point in the season, up to around 15 degrees above normal

* Next notable precipitation opportunity moves through the region
  Friday/Friday evening, dependent on frontal passage timing.
  - This includes the opportunity for thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

As broadly expected the last few days, cold frontal boundary
gradually made its way through the area this morning, settling
toward to just south of the Highway 50 corridor, dragging light rain
and rain showers with it. While the surface boundary/wind shift
settled in said area, the colder and drier near-surface air mass
lagged back towards the N/NW across NW Missouri and into Iowa and
Nebraska. To the west, weak rain and rain showers too developed in
response to a weak mid level shortwave riding the broader flow. This
resulted in little ability to maintain as activity approached the
KS/MO border, thanks in part to the weak nature of the lift a bit of
drier air working against it. As we work into this evening and
overnight, the mid-level shortwave will continue to ride and round
the ridge, keeping low-end PoPs across portions of far W and NW
Missouri. Given poor lapse rates (~5-6 degC/km) in many cases, the
result will range from light rain to drizzle in most cases through
Tuesday morning.

Through the day Tuesday, stalled frontal boundary begins to lift
back northward. Main result will be light southerly wind component
returning and lingering cloud cover much of the day. Another compact
mid-level shortwave appears poised to ridge the SW flow and once
again may clip NW areas Tuesday evening into overnight. But again,
poor overall conditions limit results to light rain chances. NBM
came in dry during this time frame (00z-06z Tue), but have
collaborated the addition of slight chance PoPs with affected
neighbors.

Much of the remainder of the work week will be highlighted by
building mid-upper level ridging across the central CONUS as a large
trough builds into the western CONUS. Main sensible weather
consequence here will be warming temperatures. Strong consensus in
low to mid 80s returning for much (if not all) of the area Wednesday
through Friday. This would yield temperatures upwards of 15 degrees
above normal... something we are all likely used to at this point.
Big changes come later Friday though...

By Friday PM and into Saturday, the aforementioned western
CONUS trough will have worked its way through the Intermountain
West and lift out into the Northern Plains. There is quite
strong consensus among deterministic synoptic guidance and what
you can gleam from their associated ensembles when it comes to
the broad pattern progression. While there are some differences
as you dive into the smaller scale details, we will see a cold
frontal boundary pushed across with an environment ahead of the
front that will be conducive for at least some convection. Any
activity Friday evening will not have as favorable of an
environment as Saturday, when MUCAPE values up to as much as
2000 J/kg are depicted with supportive 0-6km bulk shear values
(albeit more parallel to the boundary than orthogonal) yielding
at least some concern for strong to severe storms. This is
bolstered by the fairly rare SPC Day 6 15% Outlook. At this
point in time, the best threat for strong to severe looks to be
just south of the CWA into SGF and LSX areas, but any slow down
of this frontal progression may pull the area into play. Given
the parent trough and surface low will be up into Canada by this
point, it is possible models are too bullish in frontal
progression... something to monitor. Behind the front we work
back toward seasonal norms in the upper 60s to low 70s and dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period. Weak winds out of the north
with a SCT-BKN deck around 6-10kft. Increased ceilings (possibly
MVFR) are expected out ahead of a few showers during the predawn
hours this morning. However, confidence in location remains low at
this time. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast by the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Collier