813
FXUS63 KEAX 131941
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
141 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential (30-65% for visibility <1mile) for dense fog tomorrow
  morning, mainly west of I-35.

- Warm and dry conditions Friday with highs in the middle 70s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Persistent southerly winds today and into the overnight hours will
help bring warmer surface dewpoints and greater lower-level moisture
overall, northward into the area. This may lead to areas of
dense fog across northeastern KS and northwestern MO. Latest
HREF shows probabilities for less than 1 mile visibility of
30-65%. Forecast soundings in that area are a mix of of dense
fog or no fog and mainly stratus, or just nothing at all. With
probabilities for fog highest further north, diminishing further
south, and probabilities for low clouds/stratus increasing
further south, fog may be limited to the northern edge of the
moisture where it interacts with diurnally cooled temperatures.
Have maintained/modified the fog potential and increased sky
cover to note the potential for stratus as well. This stratus
adds a fair amount of uncertainty to the forecast highs for
tomorrow. Some areas in northwestern MO and northeastern KS,
have 20+ degree F spread in afternoon temperatures Friday. While
the cooler models seem to be an outlier based on thicker cloud
cover, that outcome is entirely possible given the push of
moisture northward. Overall, didn`t deviate much from the going
high temperature forecast, which has highs in the low to mid 70s
across the area. But if cloud cover develops and lingers later
in the day, high temperatures could be much lower than forecast.

For Saturday, warm and breezy conditions are expected. The cold
front will move through the area during the day and by peak heating,
likely be south of the MCI, keeping the record high temperature for
the site safe. While there will a slight drop in temperatures,
notably drier air will build in behind the front, with gusty
northwesterly winds. The greatest fire weather conditions will
be behind the front as humidity values fall into the 30% range
with winds gusting to near 20kts.

The next chance for precipitation will come early next week as a
shortwave moves out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains.
As with many of the systems that have affected the area
recently, this doesn`t look like a big rain maker. Overall, rain
amounts of few hundredths of an inch to a few tenths of an inch
look possible. Late next week, there is a stronger signal for
more widespread, heavier precipitation. A deeper, stronger
trough moves into the middle of country with better moisture
return ahead of it. This system, if it pans out, could bring
widespread meaningful precipitation to the area, which would
dent the drought conditions but not eliminate them.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions with south winds are expected through the
afternoon and most of the overnight. Overnight, a northward surge
of lower-level moisture will bring potential for fog and low
ceilings to eastern/northeastern KS and western/northwestern MO.
It looks more likely for fog to develop in northeastern KS and
northwestern MO, with a transition to lower ceilings south of
that area. Where this transition occurs over the thresholds for
aviation partners is uncertain at this point but it looks like
MCI has a higher probability of lower ceilings vs fog and STJ
has a higher probability of fog vs lower ceilings.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB