196
FXUS63 KEAX 141726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areas of dense fog this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory in effect
  for portions north central to central Missouri and eastward until
  9 am.

* Hot and humid conditions return Wednesday with highs in the mid
  90s and heat index values of 100-105.

* Chances for showers and storms return late Wednesday and continue
  Thursday into Friday. Strong storms looks possible Thursday
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

This morning, areas of dense fog have formed as a very humid air
mass resides over the area. With no changeover in the air mass from
yesterday, crossover temperatures range from the middle 60s in the
western third of the forecast area to around 70 degrees in our
eastern two-thirds. With early morning lows forecast to be in the
middle 60s, crossover temperatures could be exceeded by 5 or more
degrees in our eastern zones. As of 07Z, observations are already
reporting spotty dense fog. Nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery also shows fog spreading in the river valleys and
possibly building out of the valleys. With additional cooling
to go before sunrise, it`s likely we`ll see areas of dense fog
from several hours before sunrise to an hour or two after. So
have issued a dense fog advisory through 9 AM to account for
this. Confidence in dense fog lowers further west but will
monitor for possible expansion to the west.

Conditions will be close to normal Monday with a warming trend into
Wednesday. By Wednesday, strong warm and moist advection will help
temperatures climb into the middle 90s for most of the forecast
area. Dewpoints will likely range from the upper 60s to middle 70s
during the afternoon hours. This will lead to uncomfortable humidity
levels, resulting in heat index values climbing as high as 105
across the area. If these trends continue, a heat advisory may be
needed for most, if not all of the forecast area Wednesday.

Storms may move into northern MO Wednesday evening/ Wednesday night
with a possible MCS moving along a front draped from central KS
into southeastern NE and southern IA. That front moves
southward during the day Thursday and likely becomes the focus
for renewed convection. Models show nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE
Thursday afternoon, with 20 to perhaps 30 kts of deep layer
shear. Forecast soundings show 1-1.5 km deep inverted-V with
some mid-level dry air helping to lead to large values of
downdraft CAPE. Given this environment, it looks like strong
storms are possible with potential for a few severe storms. The
main hazards look like strong/damaging winds. Additionally,
freezing levels near 15K ft and precipitable water values over 2
inches indicate heavy rain is possible.

For the remainder of the forecast, ensemble mean upper-level flow
suggest very broad ridging across the southern half of the CONUS.
Stronger upper-level flow, which is nearly zonal in nature, will
reside across the northern tier of the CONUS. With the absence of
stronger ridging, and stronger, nearly zonal flow, just north of the
area, it looks like there will be a small chance for precipitation
nearly every day Friday through Monday. The best chances will be
across the northern portions of the forecast area, closer to
the stronger flow and storm track, with decreasing chances
further south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds
will mostly range from calm up to 5-7 knots. Went with SCT040
to account for the diurnal cu fields developing with daytime
heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier