960
FXUS63 KEAX 172031
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening
  into the overnight hours. A few storms could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- A strong cold front moves through the region tomorrow
  afternoon, with gusty northwesterly winds up to 35 mph and
  much cooler, drier air coming behind it.

- After a brief warmup on Monday, another cold front moves
  through and decreases temperatures closer to seasonal normals
  for Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A mid/upper cyclone has moved out of the Dakotas and into southern
Manitoba this afternoon, with a trailing positively tilted trough
extending southward and a band of 40 to 60 knot SW mid level winds
from Kansas into far western Ontario. Meanwhile, another mid level
shortwave trough is anticipated to amplify as it moves across
the Desert Southwest and into the Southern High Plains later
tonight, and has strengthened SW mid level winds from southern
Arizona all the way into eastern KS. At the surface, an
occluded 992 mb closed surface low is currently analyzed near
the Manitoba/Ontario border, with a long cold front trailing
from near Duluth to the southwest across western Iowa, far SE
Nebraska, and into NE Kansas. This has yielded some theta e
advection across the region today, with temperatures this
afternoon in mid 80s, SSW winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph, and
slightly increased dewpoints. Pre frontal convection has
initiated across portions of NE Kansas and NW Missouri along a
surface based instability axis, but should continue to weaken
as it moves east into a less favorable environment. The front
will continue to slowly progress to the southeast through the
evening hours, likely stalling out across NW Missouri/NE Kansas
by late tonight, and while forcing is a bit on the underwhelming
side, isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely to
develop along and ahead of the front. While the highest
instability should remain to our southwest across Wichitas and
Topekas CWAs, a corridor of 250-750 J/kg of ML CAPE (although
lapse rates will be underwhelming) should be in place along and
ahead of the front, and with 40 knot WSW mid level winds
overspreading the region by mid afternoon and a 30 to 35 knot
low level jet ramping up by late evening, shear will be
conducive for better organized updrafts. This will provide a
chance for some strong to marginally severe storms this evening
and late tonight, with damaging wind gusts and hail being the
primary hazards.

The front will likely stall out somewhere in the vicinity of
Kirksville to Kansas City by early Saturday morning. The
aforementioned shortwave trough currently located over the
Desert Southwest will move into Texas/Oklahoma Saturday
morning/afternoon along with another shortwave embedded within
the northwesterly flow descending out of the northern High
Plains and into the Central Plains, acting to deepen the larger
scale mid/upper trough across the central CONUS and yield 90+
knot NW mid level winds overspreading the region. This will
finally push the front completely through the region by Saturday
afternoon and evening. Depending on the exact progression of
the front, it is possible that a few strong storms may be
possible Saturday afternoon along the northern edge of the Ozark
Plateau (Butler to Boonville area) before quickly moving off to
the east.

Much cooler, drier air will move in behind the front by Saturday
afternoon/evening, along with gusty northwesterly winds up to
35 to perhaps even 40 mph continuing into the overnight and
early morning hours of Sunday. Overnight lows for Saturday night
into Sunday morning are forecast to drop into the mid 40s.
Northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of the mid/upper
trough continues on Sunday, with forecast highs only in the mid
60s. Warmer and more humid air quickly returns on Monday out
ahead of yet another shortwave approaching from the northwest
(theta e advection), with highs rebounding into the mid to
upper 70s. The shortwave should move through, pushing a cold
front through the region by Monday evening/night. As of
yesterday, models showed low end chances for precipitation with
this frontal passage, but has been trending drier in recent
model runs. Cooler temperatures move in once more behind the
front, with highs in the 60s likely for next Tuesday, and some
frost possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for
portions of northern and northeastern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals with southerly winds gusting up
to 25 knots. These conditions will continue through the next
several hours, with gusts relaxing by around 23z this afternoon.
A slow moving cold front will likely help generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon into the
overnight hours. For the KC metro terminals, the period most
likely to have showers and storms is the 2z to 6z window
tonight (currently handled with a TEMPO group for -TSRA). A few
isolated showers may linger through around 9z Saturday morning.
Winds will turn WSW by early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW