698
FXUS63 KEAX 181730
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet, Hot Weather Conditions Today

- Showers/Storms on Saturday

- Cold Front Sunday Leads to Cooler Temperatures Through Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

594dam H5 heights spread across much of the central CONUS and Gulf
Region this morning with a developing trough over the western CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure currently sits over the Upper Midwest
while a surface cyclone is developing across the Front Range. The
dCVA with this western CONUS trough will increase across the Rockies
today, allowing the surface cyclone to deepen. Surface pressure
falls will expand eastward into the lower Missouri River Valley, and
will increase low-level southerly flow through the afternoon. There
is a boundary currently stalled across central Missouri during the
overnight hours that will start to move northward as this cyclone
deepens. This will continue to provide WAA and moisture transport
this afternoon, pushing high temperatures into the mid 90s south of
Hwy. 36. Northern Missouri and locations closer to the Iowa border
may remain cooler depending how far north the boundary tracks
northward. A few sprinkles may occur in northern Missouri near the
boundary but mid and upper-level lift support will be displaced
further northward into Iowa, and that is where the better
precipitation chances will be placed for today, therefore keeping
most of the forecast area dry for Friday.

Saturday, while the main trough starts to close up, most
deterministic guidance depicts a stronger H5 short-wave and
vorticity maxima ejecting across the Plains, increasing the eastward
propagation speed of the surface cyclone through the afternoon.
Surface pressure falls will continue across the forecast area as
this occurs. Mid-level lift may increase a bit as we start to see H5
height falls with the approach of this feature, presenting isolated
to scattered shower/storm potential Saturday morning and afternoon.
Trailing this system will be a stronger cold front that will enhance
convergence, especially heading into the evening hours. With
temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s at
least, rain shower and storm activity should increase coverage
through the evening, as prior daytime heating destabilizes the
boundary layer. Mid-level cooling should help to steepen mid-level
lapse rates, allowing the development of stronger updrafts, and a
few of these storms could become severe. Portions of central and
eastern Kansas may see better deep layer shear, with 0-6km bulk
values around 30 kts, but unsure how far east this gets into our
forecast area, as the mid-level trough may start to lift before
spreading over our area. This may be a limiting factor in severe
potential in storms on Saturday and early Sunday. Appreciable CAPE
through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if
we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a
favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind
gusts. As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally
around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough
with the strongest storms through Sunday morning. We will need watch
closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold
front may stall. Areas north of Interstate 70 earlier this week saw
heavy amounts of rain, and may run into issues. However, if hourly
rainfall rates remain light and occur over a longer duration into
early Sunday morning, hydro issues can be mitigated. The front
should then push completely through on Sunday, which will keep high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Perhaps far southern and
southeastern zones hit the mid 80s. This will also depend on
lingering cloud and light rainfall activity, as there may still be
some lift on the backside of the cold front.

Monday will start a cooler period, after spending much of September
thus far above average. The cold front will be to the southeast of
the area. Another H5 trough is progged to move across the Central
CONUS this time, which may continue shower activity, with ensemble
guidance suggesting slight chances generally between 25-35% across
the area. Conditions then appear drier for Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Isolated to scattered rain showers re-enter the forecast Thursday
and Friday next week, and temperatures may start to climb back
toward the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Presently seeing VFR at all terminals, with SKC prevailing
through the late afternoon. Some remnant cloud debris will
introduce mid/high clouds at terminals, but no flight impacts
are expected. Overnight, seeing the potential for LLWS with the
low-level jet. However, currently thinking greater impacts will
remain north of KSTJ, so have left out mentions at this time.
Also seeing potential for weather impacts at KSTJ around 7-10z;
with lower confidence, have elected for a PROB30. Greater
aviation impacts are anticipated tomorrow evening (wind
shift/weather), but have included a mention of breezier
conditions tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...SPG