954
FXUS63 KEAX 271932
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
232 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible late this
 evening into Thursday mainly for eastern KS and western MO,
 south of I-70. No severe weather is expected.

- Temperatures ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s over the next
  few days.

- Additional spotty chances for showers and storms this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Broad mid to upper level ridging continues its gradual eastward
track entering the Great Plains Region. Troughing remains over the
North Atlantic region as well as the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, a high pressure just to the east of our area has shifted
winds across the area out of the south. This high has brought an air
mass that has kept high temperatures below seasonal averages for
this time of year. Highs today will mostly range in the upper 70s to
low 80s. A surface low and its associated warm front emerging out of
the Front Range has provided lift for showers and storms to our west
over eastern KS this morning. Current (as of 18Z) radar shows
returns gradually approaching the area over central and eastern KS.
With southerly flow slowly increasing moisture transport and diurnal
heating increasing instability, this should provide just enough to
allow showers to hold together as they approach our area later this
afternoon/early evening. Areas in eastern KS and western MO, south
of I-70, will have the best chances for a few isolated to scattered
showers this evening. As showers track to the south-southeast, they
will be entering an environment with very limited instability
(MUCAPE values ranging less than 100 J/kg). Given this, as well as
an overall unfavorable environment for storms, severe weather is not
anticipated.

As we go into the overnight hours, the warm front is anticipated to
stall out and become more diffuse to our southwest. A H700 shortwave
moves over the area providing increased lift aloft. Additionally, a
low-level jet intensifies well to the southwest of our area
increasing low-level convergence, reinvigorating convection. Any
showers and storms that develop are anticipated to stay along our
southern fringes (Linn, Henry, and Bates counties). No severe threat
is expected given the very limited instability, unfavorable
environment, and better forcing remaining to our south and west.

Taking a look from the hydro perspective, the primary threat from
the rounds of precipitation expected today and tomorrow will be
brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. PWATs increase to
around 1.2-1.8 inches as a result of increased moisture transport
from southerly winds and the low-level jet. This, combined with 10-
12 kft warm cloud layers suggests the potential for a few showers
and storms to be efficient rain-producers. The main limiting factor
will be the much-lacking instability which will impede storm
formation. For Wednesday and Thursday combined, forecasted rain
totals range up to 1.5 inches with the higher end of that range
concentrated near areas in southern Linn and Bates Counties. Areas
south of the KC Metro will mostly likely see a few sprinkles up to
around half an inch. Ensemble guidance has significantly backed off
forecasted rain totals since yesterday, reducing any potential
flooding concerns. Better chances for higher precipitation remain
just to the west and south of the area. With the period of
precipitation spanning near 24 hours (Wednesday afternoon-Thursday
afternoon) and tolerant FFG, the likelihood of any flooding
significantly decreases. If any flooding occurs, it will most likely
be very isolated.

Going into the weekend, highs remain around the upper 70s to low 80s
which happens to be just below seasonal averages as another surface
high pushes south from eastern Canada. Our winds shift out of the
east keeping our dew points out of the 70s. This should make for
continued pleasant conditions into early next week. Otherwise, a few
spotty chances for precipitation remain this weekend into early next
week as multiple shortwaves move through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period. Winds around 10-13 kts
out of the south expected for most of the afternoon. This
evening winds will weaken as diurnal mixing diminishes. MVFR
ceilings will develop early tomorrow morning with showers and
storms farther south. Pockets of IFR conditions are also
possible. A few showers may clip KIXD, therefore added a PROB30
group for showers. Conditions will begin to improve as clouds
dissipate with diurnal heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier