047
FXUS63 KEAX 012351
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
651 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances begin to move into southern/ southeastern MO tonight-
  Tuesday morning.

- A strong cold front moves through the area Wednesday brining a chance
  for strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon. A few storms
  may be capable of producing large hail and/or damaging winds.

- Below normal temperatures expected from Thursday morning through
  Tuesday morning next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Low-level water vapor imagery, along with local and regional
radar imagery, shows a mid-level vorticity max over northeastern
KS/ northwestern MO/ southeastern NE/ southwestern IA. This
slowly moving wave was resulting in persistent rainfall for far
northwestern Missouri. Hourly rainfall rates in that area are
not overly impressive at only several tenths of an inch.
However, the persistent nature to the rain has lead to radar
estimates approaching 1.5" in the last 6 hours. As the broader-
scale shortwave moves to the south and east tonight into
tomorrow morning, precipitation chances will end from north to
south through the overnight hours. Another quarter to half an
inch of rain looks possible, mainly through 00Z tonight, in far
northwestern MO.

After a quiet Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, focus then shifts
to a strong cold front passage Wednesday afternoon. There are still
differences in the timing of the front, but most guidance shows
convection developing along/ahead of the front, in the forecast
area, as it is moving south Wednesday afternoon. With the
variance in the frontal timing, there is still considerable
variability in the potential instability. MUCAPE values could be
in excess of 2000 J/kg however, ensemble mean MUCAPE values are
closer to 1000 J/kg over extreme eastern KS and western MO.
Mean deep-layer shear looks favorable though, with 35-40 kts
expected. Even with the lower mean MUCAPE values, with the
anticipated shear, strong to possibly severe storms could be
expected. If CAPE is closer to the 2000 J/kg, which is greater
than 90th percentile with this suite of guidance, the potential
for severe storms would increase. Regardless, straight to
slightly curved hodographs tend to favor the potential for a few
supercells or a mix of multicells and supercells. Modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km will help to support
large hail, which would be accentuated by any rotating
thunderstorm. Steep, nearly dry adiabatic, low-level lapse
rates, coupled with some mid-level dry air may also support
damaging wind gusts. The window for severe weather looks
approximately from 20Z through 03Z as the front quickly moves
through the area.

Cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front with
Thursday morning lows in the 40s and lower 50s expected. Another
cold front moves through Friday with low temperatures in the lower
to middle 40s Saturday morning. Cooler than normal temperatures
remain through the end of this forecast, which is through at least
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Isolated light showers continue this evening, similarly to the
previous 60 hours or so. By and large the terminals should
remain dry, although cannot rule out a few brief periods of
light rain tonight into early Tuesday morning. VFR conditions
should continue, albeit with around 4 kft ceilings. Light E to
ENE winds should persist.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW