349
FXUS63 KEAX 170505
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday evening into early
  Wednesday morning.
  *The main threats will be heavy rainfall, damaging winds, hail, and an isolated
   tornado cannot be ruled  out.
  *Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding.
  *Some storms possible Tuesday morning. These storms should be sub-
   severe.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Wednesday
afternoon from west-central MO into central MO.

- Growing confidence in the potential for hazardous heat toward the
end of the week.
  *Triple digit heat indicies possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Shortwave ridging remains over our area with a trough over eastern
MO continuing to push farther east. An upper-level trough coming
ashore from the Pacific Northwest has developed multiple shortwaves
entering the Great Plains. These shortwaves emerging out of the
Rockies will initiate an MCS that will provide chances for rounds of
showers and storms early Tuesday morning into the afternoon with the
brunt of the shower activity remaining to the north of I-70. No
severe weather is expected with these initial rounds of storms due
to weak shear and limited instability. Increased moisture transport
with southerly winds will allow PWATs across the area to range from
1-1.5 inches suggesting the potential for a few instances of heavy
rain with the initial round of storms.

As we move into Tuesday evening/early Wednesday, the environment
will become more favorable for severe weather as mid to upper level
troughing approaches the area quickly on the heels of the series of
shortwaves. Simultaneously, a stout (40-50 kt) H850 LLJ intensifies
and noses into our area from the southwest helping to increase shear
and instability. Steep lapse rates and CAPE values up to 3,000 J/kg
suggest the potential for strong updrafts and 40-50 kts of bulk
shear will aid in storm organization allowing storms to last longer.
Areas near south of I-70, near the KS/MO border seem to be the most
favorable due to the higher CAPE values. An environment like this
suggests the potential for damaging winds, hail, and even a tornado
or two are all possible. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
and river flooding is also possible with long durations of rainfall.
The initial MCS, combined with the stratiform region, as well as the
wrap around moisture from the MCS could provide enough rounds for
flooding. PWATs noticeably increase, with the intensifying of the
H850 LLJ, to exceed 2 inches which is above the climatological max
for this time of year.

There is still some uncertainty concerning the timing and track of
the showers and storms between models. The 12Z HRRR develops an MCS
with a bowing linear segment just after midnight and brings it
across our area through early Wednesday morning. This would suggest
a greater potential for widespread damaging winds with an isolated
tornado threat across the area. The NAMNST keeps the brunt of the
convection south of I-70. If storms develop become more progressive,
flooding risks may decrease. For now, MBE velocity vectors range
around 15-30 kts suggesting quicker moving storms.

Wednesday evening into the overnight, an H850 LLJ re-intensifies
near the southeastern portions of our area once again increasing
moisture and shear. As the main trough makes its final push through
the area, a round of strong to severe storms is possible. The
primary hazards seem to be damaging winds and hail. Additional
rainfall may agitate already flooded areas. SPC has placed areas
southeast of a line from Macon to Harrisonville in a slight risk.

Going into the weekend, stout ridging builds into the area
suggesting much warmer, drier conditions for Friday and into the
weekend. Probabilistic guidance is pointing towards triple digit
heat indices for the first time this year. Small temperature spreads
with ensemble suites suggest growing confidence in this forecast. We
will continue to monitor threats with future guidance to determine
if headlines will be necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Confidence remains quite low with regards to the timing and
evolution of SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites. Convection within
and moving southward this evening in eastern Nebraska/western
Iowa was handled quite poorly within the CAMs, degrading
confidence in expectations going forward. Outflow boundary
location(s) will drive potential during daytime Tuesday. Mid-
upper wave and associated surface boundary convection remains
expected later Tuesday, but timing looks to be around/just after
the end of this TAF period now. Have attempted current best
guess at windows of opportunity for SHRA/TSRA within the TAF
sites. This results in SHRA mentions from weakening activity to
move out of central Nebraska and Kansas Tuesday morning and TSRA
mentions at the three KC Metro sites mid afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis