533
FXUS63 KEAX 191138
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like temperatures are expect for much of the area into the
  weekend. Highs expected to be in the 90s each day.

- Shower and thunderstorm activity expected tonight into
  Wednesday for northern portions of the forecast area. Amounts
  up to 2-2.5 inches could be possible in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Overnight a shortwave trough has passed to our north. At the
surface low pressure across Iowa and an associated cool front
has gradually sagged into our area overnight. Scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity continues across the north part of our
forecast area. This frontal boundary will very slowly creep
south, though it looks to become more stationary as we head into
the day. This will allow for continued shower and thunderstorm
chances into the day Wednesday. Widespread severe weather looks
unlikely with this system, but a few storms may be capable of
producing gusty winds along with heavy downpours.  As the front
makes little progress south, only about half of the area should
see rainfall on Wednesday. Amounts will be highest in far
northwest Missouri where up to 2 inches will be possible.
Isolated flooding concerns will be possible in some locations. With
the boundary draped across our area along with rainfall, expect
a sharp gradient in high temperatures this afternoon. Across
the far north, temperatures will struggle to make it out of the
mid 70s. In the southern part of the forecast area, temperatures
will again reach near 90 degrees and see little in the way of
rainfall. Rainfall chances shift out of the forecast are during
the afternoon with mainly dry weather returning to the forecast.

Minor rainfall chances will exist in far northern Missouri on
Thursday, but better chances will remain outside of the area, so
most will stay dry. The later half of the week will also be
characterized by a warming trend heading into the weekend with
ridging situated across the east. On Thursday highs will be near
90 for a majority of the area. Dewpoints should remain below
70s, but we will still see heat indices into the mid 90s. On
Friday highs will be a few degrees warmer topping out in the low
to mid 90s. Saturday will be the hottest day of the week with
highs reaching the mid 90s. Even upper 90s will be possible
Saturday for the KC Metro. Heat indices will reach the lower
100s. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will hold
off until Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Shra with oncl embd ts is expected thru 15Z with VFR cigs btn
3-4kft. Aft 15Z cigs are expected to drop into MVFR between
2-3kft with ocnl lgt shra cont. Showers are expected to come to
an end around 18Z with MVFR cigs persisting. Aft 22Z cigs are
expected to rise back to VFR however, scattered thunderstorms
are expect to develop. Conf on location of the storms is not
high enough for tsra in the TAF at this time so have opted for
VCTS btn 22Z-03Z. Aft 03Z...ts chc will diminish with bkn-ovc
cigs btn 3-4kft with the exception of STJ which will experience
a return to MVFR cigs. Winds thru the pd will generally be lgt
and vrb blw 6kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...73