667
FXUS63 KEAX 300831
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Precipitation expected through the holiday weekend across eastern
  Kansas and far western Missouri. Rain chances diminish farther east.

* Cooler conditions expected next week, with the coolest
  conditions expected Wednesday night - Thursday when
  temperatures will be 15- 20 degrees F below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The central US remains a battle ground through the holiday weekend
between low pressure over central South Dakota and high pressure
entrenched across the Great Lakes.  Upper jet located on the
northern periphery of upper ridge centered across west Texas will
help guide the area of low pressure southeast today through Monday;
however, dry air originating from the ridge over the Great Lakes
will limit the eastward extent of instability and precipitation
through the weekend. Slowed pops progression into eastern Kansas
into far western Missouri into the afternoon hours today, with
greater coverage tonight into Sunday. Locations that remain
precipitation free will warm nicely into the mid and potentially
upper 80s today, while clouds and precipitation will keep
temperatures farther west near or just above 80 F.  With clouds and
precipitation, expect temperatures to remain near seasonal norms or
just above tonight in the mid 60s.

Low pressure will be relatively slow moving through the weekend
leading to additional chances of showers with embedded thunderstorms
on Sunday into Monday. Showers will be most numerous across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri and areas west as ridge to the east
will effectively block the disturbance from migrating east.
Eventually, the system is expected to shift south as upper level
ridge re-orients farther west and flow on the east side of the ridge
becomes more oriented north/south.

Fairly strong upper level disturbance is expected to build southeast
into the Great Lakes region mid-week.  Cold front associated with
this system is expected to arrive on Wednesday, leading to an early
taste of fall late week with moderating temperatures towards
seasonal averages next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with bkn high clouds expected
thru 21Z-22Z aft which bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are
fcst. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 16Z when winds will incr
out of the SSE btn 5-10kts before again becmg lgt and vrb aft
21Z-22Z. There is the chc for a few showers very late in the
TAF pd however conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at his
time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73