810
FXUS63 KEAX 311722
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain expected today into Monday most concentrated along and
  west of highway 65.

* A strong cold front is expected Wednesday. Could see showers and
  thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, though severe weather
  potential looks low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Water vapor imagery indicated an elongated trough extending from
northwest South Dakota into northeast Nebraska.  Lift ahead of this
disturbance is leading to light to moderate showers across eastern
Kansas into far western Missouri, though easterly flow emanating
from surface ridge in the Great Lakes region is eating away at
precipitation potential farther east.

For today, looking at additional waves of light rain across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri.  The clouds and periodic precipitation
will keep diurnal temperatures well below seasonal norms.
Instability will be very limited so only expect a sporadic
lightning strike or two throughout the day. While showers will be
relatively slow moving, precipitable water values will only be
slightly elevated ~1.5 inches so am not expecting any hydrology
concerns with rainfall amounts near 1 inch (~60 percent HREF
ensemble probability) in eastern Kansas through Tuesday with lesser
amounts farther east.

As upper level wave builds southeast isentropic lift increases
towards 06Z-12Z Monday south of highway 36 and mainly west of
highway 65.  Both the NAM and GFS show deeper saturation developing,
though the NAM keeps the saturation closer to the surface layer
while the GFS is closer to the 800-600 mb layer. Regardless of which
solution you believe, instability looks to be limited but could see
a increased precipitation potential Monday morning.  Lift wanes as
upper level wave approaches and moves south of the region on Monday.
 Atmospheric column dries out from aloft bringing an end to
meaningful precipitation, but still could see the potential for
drizzle lingering into Tuesday with low lying stratus lingering.

Models are still continuing to suggest a strong cold front diving
south across the Midwest mid-week, but models have trended a bit
slower suggesting the cooler air would arrive Wednesday night. This
will keep temperatures unseasonably cool on Thursday, before
temperatures moderate into the weekend. Along and ahead of the
front, there is the chance for additional shower and thunderstorms.
While speed shear increases in the column, low level moisture and
resulting instability remain limited keeping the severe weather
potential to a minimum.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected initially. But conditions will
likely trend to MVFR or potentially IFR late tonight into
tomorrow morning. There is a 30-50% chance of ceilings dropping
below 3000 ft by 12Z tomorrow, with the higher probabilities
north and west. These increase through the morning with
probabilities of ceilings below 1000 ft increasing as well late
in the forecast. Have trended to low MVFR, 1500 ft AGL, ceilings
around 12Z. This time could vary but the trend will be as the
morning progresses, ceilings become lower, especially across NE
KS and NW MO, roughly west of I-35.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB