283
FXUS63 KEAX 180449
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1049 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather this afternoon
  primarily southeast of a line from Macon to Clinton. Main
  threats are hail up to quarter sized and wind gusts up to 60
  mph in the stronger storms.

- Elevated fire weather concerns mostly east of Highway 65 today
  due to 20-30% min RH values and southeasterly wind gusts up
  to 25 mph. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

- More widespread chances for rain will occur Wednesday night
  through Friday with the higher rainfall totals trending
  towards central Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Today-Tuesday: Elevated fire weather is still a concern for
today even if there are a few scattered showers over us. Areas
east of Highway 65 are in the elevated risk area due to lower
minimum relative humidity values in the 20-30% range.
Southeasterly wind gusts have been reaching 25 mph especially in
that area. Outdoor burning is discouraged especially since fuels
are very dry to critically dry.

A surface low positioned over NW KS has a warm front extending
through central KS that has initiated a few thunderstorms. This
activity has primarily blossomed over southwest MO where the
higher dewpoints are located closer to the front. Though, SPC
still has a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather mainly east
of a Clinton to Macon line. Main threats are hail up to quarter
sized and wind gusts up to 60 mph in the stronger storms due to
the elevated instability. This activity will continue to be
scattered across the area with highest chances for rain being
east of the metro. Rainfall amounts are still expected to be
<0.10". Rain tapers off later this evening with clouds sticking
around for most of the night. This will keep us about 10 degrees
warmer than last night with highs sitting in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

The surface low will continue to push through the area overnight
and will bring us a weak cold front by Tuesday morning. Skies
attempt to clear out tomorrow but won`t quite be successful due
to the digging trough over southern CA tapping into that Pacific
moisture. Though, clouds will be scattered more than today which
will allow us to be a bit warmer tomorrow even with a slight
modification in our air mass. Expect tomorrow to be partly
cloudy with highs in the 60s and 70s and northerly winds staying
<15 mph.

Wednesday-Saturday: Another mid-level trough will come in off
the coast of California. This will also allow moisture to flow
in off the Baja peninsula. That trough will slowly move east by
mid-week bringing clouds to the area. Wednesday will be partly
cloudy with relative humidity values increasing as well. Model
guidance shows PWATs (precipitable water) reaching near 1"
across the area which would be near the 90th percentile for mid-
November. Rain chances increase Wednesday night as the surface
low drapes a warm front west to east across the area. Rain will
linger into Friday with multiple rounds of beneficial rain
expected. Widespread flooding is not expected at this time,
though there could be nuisance flooding especially in urban
areas. Highs will be warm in the upper 50s to mid 60s for
Wednesday and Thursday and drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s
by Friday.

Probabilistic rainfall amounts Wednesday-Friday
(higher towards central MO):

>0.5" (60-80%)
>1"   (40-60%)
>2"   (10-15%)

Rainfall amounts for northern MO have trended downward a bit
with the higher rainfall totals still located over central MO.
This means that the placement of the warm front might`ve shifted
a tad further south in the latest model guidance. Rain will
taper off by Friday evening as the cold front pushes through.
Lows will be about 10 degrees cooler from Thursday night to
Friday night from the 40s to the 30s as the CAA (cold air
advection) begins to settle in. Highs on Saturday will be in the
low to mid 50s with skies clearing throughout the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A few isolated showers have moved quickly across Missouri. Most
of these should be out of the way of the STJ and KC metro
terminals. Model guidance is hinting at more cloud cover
developing overnight that could bring some MVFR ceilings.
However satellite trends in the past couple of hours are
indicating this may struggle to develop. Will continue to place
a few hours of MVFR ceilings at the terminals during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. Conditions should scatter out by mid
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soria
AVIATION...Krull