904
FXUS63 KEAX 062331
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing showers and thunderstorms linger mainly west of I-35
  through the afternoon. No severe expected.

- Storms are expected to gradually move eastward this evening and
  through the overnight. Coverage becomes more isolated to
  scattered, especially by the predawn hours on Tuesday.

- More seasonal temperatures are expected this week before warming
  back above average this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Ongoing showers and storms are expected to persist through most of
the day as a cold front gradually moves through the area today.
These showers and storms are anticipated to mostly stay to the west
of the I-35 corridor. The threat for severe weather remains low
given the weak shear and limited instability. The synoptic pattern
is defined by mid to upper level ridging over the eastern U.S. with
positively-titled troughing extending across the Great Plains, just
upstream of our CWA. At the surface, high pressure remains prevalent
on the east coast. A surface low over eastern Canada is dragging its
associated cold front extending through the northwestern portion of
our area. This cold front has provided lift for showers and storms,
mainly for areas west of I-35 since late last night into this
afternoon. Due to the weak flow, this front will continue to
gradually track through the area at a snails pace. With vort maxima
(seen on H500 and H700) moving through the flow aloft, this will
provide additional lift for showers and storms to linger through
this evening. These showers and storms have not produced severe
conditions and the potential is fairly non-existent at this point
with such limited instability. Additionally, these showers have not
produced impressive rain rates significantly diminishing any
flooding concerns given our high FFG values. The highest reports in
northwest MO show up to about half an inch within the last 6 hours.
It appears these showers and storms will linger through the
overnight as they gradually track to the east. As for temperatures,
there will be a large spread today due to the gradual nature of the
cold front. On the north side of the front, highs today will range
in the low 60s to to low 70s as increased cloud coverage impedes the
effects of diurnal heating. On the southern side of the front, highs
will range in the low to mid 80s as skies remain partly cloudy.

Late tonight into early tomorrow morning, showers and storms
continue to track to the east/southeast  as the front makes its way
through the rest of MO. No severe weather is anticipated and
flooding concerns remain extremely low. With passing vort maxima,
there may be a few light showers Tuesday morning, but they are
expected to dissipate by Tuesday afternoon. A much more seasonal,
drier air mass on the backside of the cold front will continue its
track through the area, reorienting our winds out of the north. As a
result, Tuesday afternoon should be mostly dry with highs in the mid
60s to low 70s.

Mid to upper level ridging moves into the area mid-week sparking a
warming trend that returns temperatures into the 80s by Friday.
Speaking to precipitation, late Friday into Saturday, a closed low
descending from the Great Lakes brings chances for precip across the
area. Early next week, another system over the northern Great
Plains, near ND, brings chances for precip. However, there is low
confidence in these showers and storms given how far out these
systems are.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Front continues to move through the area, with scattered
showers. In the past couple of hours, rain shower trend has been
downward, but we are watching the potential for more
development during the overnight hours. Winds will maintain a
northerly component through most of the TAF period. Low-end MVFR
ceilings are expected with periods of MVFR visibility possible.
There have been some signals for a few hours of IFR conditions
between 10-13z on Tuesday morning, mainly associated with newly
developed rain showers. At this time, not confidence to place
in the STJ and KC Metro TAFs, but will continue to watch trends
of ceilings as they drop into the lower MVFR range.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull