381
FXUS63 KEAX 102034
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Potential for fog tonight- Saturday morning.

* Mild temperatures through the weekend with dry conditions.

* Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday
  night into Monday as next cold front moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

As of 19Z, cold front has roughly made it`s way to the I-35
corridor. Clouds ahead and along the front have kept temperatures in
the 60s, but with partial clearing, temperatures have quickly warmed
into the 70s.  Temperatures will be kept cooler across central
Missouri, while areas farther west have warmed into the upper 70s
and lower 80s. The clouds are expected to clear tonight as surface
cold front builds south of the region.  This will lead to good
radiational cooling; however, lingering surface moisture from
morning showers/storms will likely lead to fog development.  Both
the RAP and HRRR show fog developing in central Missouri towards
midnight, and expanding westward through the night in the easterly
winds.

Morning fog may be somewhat stubborn lifting into a stratus deck
before scattering in the afternoon hours.  As such, have kept
temperatures cooler in central Missouri once again.  Increasing
pressure gradient through the afternoon into the overnight hours
Saturday night will keep winds and temperatures mild.  Overnight
temperatures look to remain 10-15 F above normal.

Upper tough just off the Pacific NW coast is expected to become more
elongated as it builds east into the upper ridge. Cold front
associated with this system is expected to move through the region
late Sunday night into Monday. Limited instability and shear in the
low and mid levels of the troposphere should keep this activity to
showers with a few rumbles of thunder.

Upper ridge builds north from the southern plains midweek next week
with a few ridge riders potentially creating sporadic chances for
storms...especially across northern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front working through the region will lead to more
consistent northerly flow. Skies should clear through the
evening hours, which could set up good conditions for
radiational fog. Radaitional fog is expected to develop across
central Missouri towards 06Z, expanding westward with time in
light easterly winds. Have not included KC metro in fog, but may
need to consider in future iterations. Fog may lift into stratus
before scattering out Saturday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT