989
FXUS63 KEAX 151056
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
556 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (15-25%) for isolated showers and storms
  possible today into tonight for extreme northern Missouri and
  central Missouri

- Storms are likely late Tuesday afternoon/evening into
  Wednesday. Storms on Tuesday will have the potential to be
  severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.

- Storms Tuesday evening with have the potential to produce
  very heavy rainfall which may lead to areas of flooding.
  Additional storms on Wednesday would only exacerbate any
  flooding.

- Heat builds into the area for late this week into next
  weekend. Heat indicies in excess of 100F are likely for Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The main change this forecast period revolves around a general trend
towards mostly dry conditions today through Monday. The upper level
pattern today depicts a upper level ridge of high pressure across
the southwestern CONUS extending through the eastern Rockies. This
leaves the local region under northwest flow aloft. Previous
forecast runs had produced a weak upper level shortwave that was
forecast to keep the forecast area unsettled today. Latest model
guidance now suggests two weak shortwaves moving through the region,
one north of the area and one south of the area. This will now look
to keep the area mostly dry although there is a slight chance (15-
25%) of isolated showers and storms near the MO/IA border and for
areas south of Highway 50. With precipitation looking less likely,
temperatures look to be a couple degrees warmer today with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Another subtle shortwave in northwest flow is
progged to move across Iowa tonight which again could clip extreme
northern Missouri so kept slight chance PoPs (less than 20%) for the
MO/IA border area. On Monday, the area becomes more under the
influence of the upper level ridge as it attempts to build eastward.
This will act to keep conditions dry and with height rises, highs
will build into the mid 80s to near 90.

The active period of weather looks to be between Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Models on Monday night into Tuesday advertise a
upper level shortwave moving across the Upper Midwest. The NAM and
EC are further south with this feature than the GFS. The NAM and EC
solutions would bring showers and thunderstorms to most of the area
early Tuesday pushing a cold front into the CWA. The GFS solution
would just bring storms to the northern CWA on Tuesday. By late
Tuesday afternoon/evening a strong upper level shortwave will track
through the eastern Rockies into the central Plains. This will
provide additional lift for storms to develop along the cold front
in the area. These storms will have the potential to be severe with
a extremely unstable environment in place with 4000-5000J/Kg of
MLCAPE and adequate deep layer shear around 35-40kts. These storms
will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. In
addition, storms are expected to be very efficient with PWAT values
between 1.80"-2.20" which will have the potential to lead to flood.
The flood potential will also be exacerbated by a nocturnal LLJ
developing and nosing into the area overnight which may act to hold
up the front and allow training to occur. Wednesday another upper
level shortwave will move into the central Plains and with the front
still progged to be in the vicinity of the forecast area, addition
showers and thunderstorms are expected. The severe potential will
hinge on the location of the front after Tuesday/Tuesday night
convection. Highs Tuesday ahead of the front will be in the mid 80s
to the lower 90s and will fall into the low to mid 80s behind the
front Wednesday.

Late next week into next weekend looks to bring our first shot of
very hot conditions. Thursday, the upper level ridge of high
pressure that was over the southwestern CONUS looks to build back
north and eastward in the wake of the upper level shortwaves
shunting it southward. As it builds over the eastern Rockies on
Thursday, that will provide height rises for the local area with
highs rising back into the mid 80s to near 90. By Friday and
Saturday, the upper level ridge axis looks to build directly over
the forecast area allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 90s.
The upper level ridge will slide east of the area Sunday but only
subtle height fall will still hold highs in the lower 90s. Heat
products may be needed during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with ocnl sct clouds around
5kft with a bkn high cloud deck abv thru 04Z-06Z. Aft 04Z-06Z...
just sct high clouds are fcst. Winds will be lgt out of the ESE
to SSE at 3-7kts thru the pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73