860
FXUS63 KEAX 170748
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
248 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon through tonight. The
  main threats are for damaging winds and large hail.

- In addition to the severe threat, very heavy rainfall is
  expected with 1 to 3 inches possible. Flash and river flooding
  will be possible tonight.

- Our first chance of excessive heat arrives on Friday and will
  continue through the weekend. Heat index values on Friday and
  Saturday are forecast to reach 98-105F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Convection from late last night/early this morning will set the
stage for the potential for severe convection this afternoon into
tonight. Early this morning, a outflow boundary that was pushed out
by last night`s convection across NE/IA is evident on radar and
satellite approaching the Missouri river across central Missouri (as
of 2AM). This feature is expected to become one of the foci of
afternoon convection. The second, as suggested by hi-res models
suggests a MCV or additional outflow boundary may develop out of the
decaying convection across southeastern Nebraska which would move
into northern Missouri. These features this afternoon will be
progged to move into into a very moisture rich environment with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s as well as a very unstable
environment with MUCAPE values rising to 2500-3500J/Kg as
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s. In addition, steep mid-
level lapse rate will also be in place over the area. Consequently,
as storms develop along these features this afternoon, severe storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds will be possible. In addition,
will the boundary (outflow) in place, a isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out however, weak 0-1Km shear may be a limiting factor.
Tonight, a upper level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Rockies into the central Plains. An associated surface cold front
will push across Kansas this afternoon and into the local area
tonight. This will be the focus for yet another round of severe
storms with the main threat being for damaging winds as hi-res
models suggest a MCS developing with a bowing segment on its forward
flank. In addition to the severe threat, very strong and deep
moisture transport will nose into the area courtesy of a 40-50Kt
LLJ. This will provide enhanced lift and may lead to training of
storms in an environment of PWATs ranging from 1.8"-2.2" lead to
extremely efficient storms capable of producing flash flooding as
well as river flooding. The cold front is expected to push through
the CWA by Wednesday morning as the upper level shortwave trough
moves through the region. However, on Wednesday a second shortwave
trough is expected to move through the region continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances. These storms are not expected to be severe and
will exit the area Wednesday evening. Highs behind the front
Wednesday will only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High and dry conditions are forecast for much of the extended
period. The main feature of interest will be a upper level ridge of
high pressure which will be located over the southwestern CONUS on
Thursday morning. This feature will begin to build northeastward
Thursday providing height rises to the area allowing temperatures to
rise back into the mid to upper 80s. The heart of the heat will
arrive Friday through Sunday as the area moves directly under the
ridge axis. Highs through this period will rise into the low to mid
90s. Heat index values will max out on Friday and Saturday between
98-105 with Sunday being a little drier yielding heat indices in the
96-101 range. By Monday the upper level ridge will shift east to the
Mid-Altantic putting the local area under southwest flow aloft. This
will continue to keep temperatures above normal but storm chances
may temper conditions a bit. Heat products may be needed for late
this week into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Confidence remains quite low with regards to the timing and
evolution of SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites. Convection within
and moving southward this evening in eastern Nebraska/western
Iowa was handled quite poorly within the CAMs, degrading
confidence in expectations going forward. Outflow boundary
location(s) will drive potential during daytime Tuesday. Mid-
upper wave and associated surface boundary convection remains
expected later Tuesday, but timing looks to be around/just after
the end of this TAF period now. Have attempted current best
guess at windows of opportunity for SHRA/TSRA within the TAF
sites. This results in SHRA mentions from weakening activity to
move out of central Nebraska and Kansas Tuesday morning and TSRA
mentions at the three KC Metro sites mid afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis