695
FXUS63 KEAX 011712
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain continues today mainly west of highway 65.

* A strong cold front is expected Wednesday afternoon. A few of the
  storms accompanying the front may be capable of producing large
  hail or strong damaging winds.

* Below normal temperatures expected much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Rex block has begun to develop across the eastern US forcing the
shortwave across eastern Nebraska south. As this disturbance builds
into eastern Kansas, low level warm air advection may induce shower
develop across eastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri.
Atmospheric lapse rates are nearly moist adiabatic, therefore, little
instability should limit lightning potential again today.  Have
forecast heaviest rainfall this morning with a broad quarter of an
inch across northwest Missouri, but short wave building south across
central Nebraska this morning is expected to undercut more
stationary wave across eastern Nebraska. This will gradually shift
the focus south, though lingering mid-level moisture in the 800-700
mb layer may result in a lingering spotty shower through the morning
hours on Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to build Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a
strong cold front moving through the region Wednesday afternoon.
This building heat and humidity is expected to yield 1500-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE.  With speed shear in the upper half of the atmosphere, we
could see values of bulk shear of 30-40 knots resulting in the
potential for strong to severe storms.  SPC has also outlooked the
area Wednesday afternoon in a marginal risk.

Much cooler condition settle across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s and highs in the lower
70s-10-15 degrees below seasonal norms for this time of year.

A reinforcing cold front is expected to drop through the region on
Friday, keeping below normal temperatures across the region through
much of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Periods of MVFR visibility and ceilings are likely this
afternoon and evening as precipitation moves into eastern KS and
western MO. These conditions may continue into the overnight,
though that seems more likely further north based on ensemble
guidance so have kept VFR conditions going from the overnight
through the end of the forecast. Winds remain light through the
forecast but will trend to the northeast tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB