942
FXUS63 KEAX 161805
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
105 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for severe weather exist for Tuesday late afternoon
  into Tuesday night. The main threats are for damaging winds
  and large hail however, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
  out.

- In addition to the severe threat on Tuesday into Tuesday
  night, heavy rain is expected which may lead to flash flooding
  as well as flooding along area rivers, creeks and streams.

- Growing confidence in the potential for hazardous heat toward
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A warm and humid day is expected today as a upper level ridge over
the southwestern CONUS and eastern Rockies tries to build eastward.
This will provide height rises over the local area allowing highs to
rise into the mid 80s to near 90. Conditions however, will remain
dry as weak shortwaves remain north and south of the area with a
surface ridge of high pressure in place. today into tonight a  mid-
level shortwave impulse will move across the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest. This will cause a cold front to sag across
central Plains, head of which thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon into this evening from eastern Nebraska into
northern Kansas. This complex of storms will approach the area
during the early morning hours however it is expected to be in a
decaying state and there are some hi-res models that suggest it
dissipates before it reaches the forecast area. As such a few
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds may affect portions of eastern
Kansas into western Missouri. This will lead into the severe threat
for Tuesday into Tuesday night. It is a little uncertain what the
focus will be for storm initiation late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Some models hint that the focus may be along a
outflow boundary or remnant MCV left over from the Tuesday morning
convection or if it will be out ahead of the main surface.
Regardless a mid-level shortwave moving from the eastern Rockies
into the central Plains this afternoon will provide the lift for
convective initiation. Storms will develop in a highly unstable
environment with MUCAPE values in the 2500-3000J/Kg range with
effective shear of 40-50kts in addition to steep mid level lapse
rates. This will be more than adequate for severe storms capable of
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado although
weak 0-1km may be a limiting factor. In addition, to the the severe
threat Tuesday, flash flooding will be a concern. Strong and deep
moisture transport into the area will yield PWATs between 2.00"-
2.25" which is in the 99th percentile for mid June. This will make
storms extremely efficient and with a nocturnal LLJ expected to
develop Tuesday evening into Tuesday night which will nose into the
area. That may cause the boundary to hang up and allow training to
develop. Hi-res models also suggest the LLJ nosing into the area
will help develop an MCS which would help produce widespread heavy
rainfall. Forecast QPF for the event current ranges from 1.50" to
locally 4.00". The LLJ will shift it`s focus east of the area and
weaken Wednesday morning allow storms to diminish. There is the
potential for severe weather across the southeastern CWA on
Wednesday where the surface front is progged to be by Wednesday
afternoon however, the threat is conditional on if the area can
destabilize. Highs Tuesday ahead of the front will be in the mid 80s
to near 90s but will fall to the low to mid 80s behind the front on
Wednesday.

The main concern in the extended period continues to look like the
chance for our first shot of excessive heat of the season by Friday
and through the weekend. Thursday the upper level ridge over the
southwestern CONUS will begin to build into the eastern Rockies.
this will provide height rises over the local area boosting highs
into the mid to upper 80s. By Friday, the ridge axis will move
directly over the area allowing highs to rise into the low to mid
90s. This ridge axis will remained anchored over the area through
the weekend keeping highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values
Friday and Saturday are expected to range in the mid 90s to lower
100s. Heat products may be necessary for this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions expected until late tomorrow morning. A round of
showers and storms are possible late Tuesday morning. Still
some uncertainty in timing and location so went with a PROB30
group.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Collier