385
FXUS63 KEAX 170720
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
220 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areas of heavy rain early this morning. Several inches of rain
  possible from the KC area eastward along and south of Highway 36.
    - Flash flooding will continue to be a threat through the
      morning hours.
    - Rain may continue into the afternoon south of Highway 50.

* Heat and humidity build into the area this weekend. -
  Dangerous heat next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s
  and heat index values of 105 to 110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Fast looping of radar shows what looks like at least two MCVs
affecting the area, withing the broader rainfall affecting the
region from eastern KS into central MO. The most notable MCV, as of
07Z, is over the KC metro. This circulation allowed rapid convective
development between 06Z and 07Z with only slow southward movement.
This is on top of an area that already saw heavy rainfall from
yesterday afternoon to evening. The second area, was over Johnson
County, MO and Pettis County. As of 02Z it looks like this area of
convection is weakening but this MCV was able to produce radar
estimated rainfall amounts near 4". These areas should move
southward with time through the predawn hours. Flash flooding will
remain a concern with this activity with eventual river flooding
from the excessive runoff.

With ongoing convection again tonight, there was little time to
analyze anything beyond the next 12-24 hours. But guidance shows an
upper-level ridge building  into the Southern Plains by Sunday. This
ridge looks to remain entrenched in the middle of the country
through the end of the forecast and based on ensemble guidance
through at least day 9 (July 25th). Our forecast continues to show
highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the 105-110
range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Widespread thunderstorms will continue to stream across the
region with occasional IFR or lower conditions. Showers may
then continue into the morning hours before coming to an end.
Surface high pressure will build over the area through the day,
and that will lead to northeast winds, MVFR/IFR ceilings and
possibly some light rain/drizzle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS