


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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943 FXUS63 KEAX 171109 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 609 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Areas of heavy rain early this morning. Several inches of rain possible from the KC area eastward along and south of Highway 36. - Flash flooding will continue to be a threat through the morning hours. - Rain may continue into the afternoon south of Highway 50. * Heat and humidity build into the area this weekend. - Dangerous heat next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 105 to 110. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Fast looping of radar shows what looks like at least two MCVs affecting the area, withing the broader rainfall affecting the region from eastern KS into central MO. The most notable MCV, as of 07Z, is over the KC metro. This circulation allowed rapid convective development between 06Z and 07Z with only slow southward movement. This is on top of an area that already saw heavy rainfall from yesterday afternoon to evening. The second area, was over Johnson County, MO and Pettis County. As of 02Z it looks like this area of convection is weakening but this MCV was able to produce radar estimated rainfall amounts near 4". These areas should move southward with time through the predawn hours. Flash flooding will remain a concern with this activity with eventual river flooding from the excessive runoff. With ongoing convection again tonight, there was little time to analyze anything beyond the next 12-24 hours. But guidance shows an upper-level ridge building into the Southern Plains by Sunday. This ridge looks to remain entrenched in the middle of the country through the end of the forecast and based on ensemble guidance through at least day 9 (July 25th). Our forecast continues to show highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the 105-110 range. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Trailing stratiform rain area, with occasional lightning, will move east of the terminals in the next 2-3 hours. Conditions should trend to MVFR later this morning into the afternoon. There may be a period of low MVFR during this time frame as well. For awareness, MKC and IXD observations are missing, so will add AMD NOT SKED for those sites until the observations are fixed. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB