014
FXUS63 KEAX 041815
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
115 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue into Monday.

- Widespread showers and storms return late Sunday night into
Monday. No severe anticipated for our area.

- Temperatures cool back toward seasonal normals next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Hot and breezy conditions for today with mid to upper level ridging
still prominent over the central and eastern U.S. A closed mid to
upper level low over UT continues to track east/northeast. At the
surface, our area is sandwiched between a high pressure which
remains prevalent over the NC/VA border and a low over eastern CO.
As a result, a strengthened pressure gradient coupled with
sufficient mixing has yielded wind gusts ranging from 20-30 mph. As
far as temperatures, highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s
approaching the low 90s.

For the second half of this weekend expect more of the same as we
remain under the influence of the mid to upper level ridge. Highs
for tomorrow will range in the mid to upper 80s, keeping the above
normal trend going. The mid to upper level low continues its track
to the northeast approaching the U.S./Canada border near MN. The
surface low tracks into northern Ontario with its associated cold
front, oriented northeast-to-southwest, nearing our area during
Sunday afternoon. Shower and storm chances return as we get into the
late evening/overnight hours. Initially, as the front approaches
showers and storms will impact northeast KS and northwest MO. As we
progress further into the early morning hours of Monday,
precipitation chances will become more widespread across the area.
Severe weather seems very unlikely with these showers and storms
even with 25-35 kts shear. Weak instability (MUCAPE values less than
500 J/kg) and an overall unfavorable environment for severe weather
significantly reduce the severe potential. Areas farther east near
central KS will likely be more favorable for severe weather given
the better shear. The front appears to stall out north of I-70
Monday afternoon providing additional chances for rounds of showers
and storms. Multiple rounds of showers and storms with PWATs around
1.4-1.6 inches (just short of the climatological max for this time
of year), could result in brief periods of torrential downpours.
Widespread flooding concerns remain low given the weak CAPE profiles
and the high FFG values due to recent dry conditions. However, an
isolated flooding event cannot be completely ruled out given 10k
warm cloud layers and moisture boosts associated with the low level
jet mainly across northwestern MO. Going into Monday afternoon,
depending on where the front stalls out will dictate how far north
the above normal temperatures will persist. Areas south of the front
could still see highs in the mid to upper 80s. There is some
uncertainty concerning temperatures as increased cloud coverage
could impede the effects of diurnal heating.

For Tuesday, chances for precipitation persist as a H500 shortwave
moves through the area providing additional lift aloft collocated
with the stalled cold front. Speaking to temperatures, highs will
range in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Again, there is some uncertainty,
regarding the most favorable areas for precipitation and
temperatures, hinging on the evolution of the cold front. If the
front pushes through most of the area on Tuesday, better
precipitation chances may stay farther south into southern MO and
temperatures could stay in the mid to upper 60s.

By Wednesday, the front is anticipated to move through the area,
ushering in a much cooler, more seasonal air mass. Highs for
Wednesday and Thursday will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Another mid-level shortwave moves through the area sparking
additional shower and storm chances (20-30%) Thursday evening into
the overnight. Mid to upper level ridging just upstream of our area
suggests temperatures begin to warm back up late next week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period.
Occasional gusts to 18-23 kts out of the south will continue
through the evening before weakening to around 7-9 kts as
diurnal mixing diminishes. Late tomorrow morning, winds will
increase again with daytime heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier