878
FXUS63 KEAX 020458
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1158 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along
  area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash
  flooding possible.

- Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend.

- A warming trend is forecast by Wednesday and Thursday next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A 500-hPa trough is currently moving across the central and
southern Plains with an associated surface low pressure system
developing in the vicinity of the OK/TX panhandles. A stalled
frontal boundary is positioned from northern IL to southern KS
and is acting as this developing system`s warm front. Further
north, across northern IA and eastern NE, a cold front is
advancing to the southeast from a low pressure system in Canada.
Weak convergence combined with upper-level support from the
trough has resulted in showers forming along the stalled front
across northeastern KS and northwestern MO. Further northeast,
flow along the boundary is much more parallel rather than
convergent, hence why showers have not formed further north.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to hold in the low-70s.

As the cold front continues to push southeast, it will collide
with the stalled front and both fronts will move southeast
through the CWA. The southeastward movement of the front will
create more convergence, allowing widespread showers to develop
across the CWA. With PWATs ahead of the front being in the
2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will
create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall. With 1-2" of rain
having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an
additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With
the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation
should be along and south of the Missouri River. As such, the
Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA
through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for
flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly
before the front starts moving. Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg)
is present along and south of the front, which may allow a
rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but
severe weather is not expected.

The cold front, and associated showers, are expected to move out
of the area early tomorrow morning. Skies will clear behind
front as surface high pressure builds in, creating deep layer
subsidence. Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit
gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning
tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures
will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling
into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the
area. Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the
western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise
and temperatures to return to the 70s. A shortwave is expected
to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing
another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are
nearly 0%. This, along with surface high pressure building back
into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the
60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow. This
will result in a warming trend, with temperatures climbing
towards the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Stratiform showers that have stuck around this evening will continue
to diminish through the night. Low-level clouds will continue
to progress southeastward, leading to higher cloud bases and a
return to VFR conditions. We may see MVFR conditions hold on
just a little bit longer tonight, especially at sites where
shower activity and lower cloud cover lingers. Clouds will
gradually diminish throughout the rest of the night, and cloud
categories of FEW and SKC will be likely tomorrow. Expect winds
to continue to come from the northeast, with gusts in the
10-20kt range. Winds will shift from the east, with gusts
diminishing late in the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Bjork