211
FXUS63 KEAX 120810
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
210 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions through this weekend. Record high
  temperatures possible Saturday with highs in the upper 70s,
  possibly pushing 80.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely (>60%) for
  Saturday.

- Chances (40-60% for Monday) for precipitation early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Dry conditions with above normal temperatures look to continue for
the second half of the work week and on into the weekend. This
morning, a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area
from the Plains. Despite weak mixing, sunny skies and height rises
will still aid in highs rising into the 60s today. Tonight, surface
high pressure will shift southeast of the area this will allow
modest WAA to get underway late tonight into Thursday. The WAA
couple with continued subtle height rises, due to upper ridging
building across the eastern Rockies will allow highs to rise into
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Friday the upper level ridge will move out
into the central/southern Plains providing continued height rises.
This coupled with continued modest WAA will drive highs well above
normal into the upper 60s to mid 70s. saturday a mid level trough
will move through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This
will act to flatten the upper ridge and send a weak/dry cold front
through the area. regardless highs out ahead of the front on
Saturday are still expected to rise into the upper 60s (northwest)
to mid to upper 70s (south). Modest CAA behind the front Saturday
night coupled with a surface ridge of high pressure building into
the area Sunday, providing weak mixing, will limit highs to the
upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday (which is still about 10 degrees
above normal for mid-November).

The next system that model world suggests will provide our next for
precipitation still resides well out in the Pacific so it is
probably not being sampled well. However,  models have continued on
being consistent on slowing the eastward progression of this system.
Both the 00Z GFS and EC now bring this system onshore along the
California coast on Saturday in the form of a closed upper low. Both
models provide solutions that  evolve this system into an open wave
on Sunday and quickly moves into through the Rockies on Sunday
through Sunday night. This open system then moves out into the
Plains states on Monday and brings the next chance for precipitation
to the area (40-60%). This upper level trough then moves through the
region Monday night continuing shower chances before surface high
pressure builds into the area on Tuesday drying out conditions.
Highs Monday will range from the lower 50s north where cold air
advection will occur earlier in the day to the mid 60s south where
CAA will hold off later. Highs Tuesday under high pressure will
remain slightly above normal with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions through the period with light southwest winds
becoming northwest as a weak boundary slides south through the
region this morning. As the high shifts east Wednesday evening,
light easterly winds are expected to develop. A few more higher
clouds are expected to build into the region towards 00Z
Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT