977
FXUS63 KEAX 040841
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Wild fire smoke near the surface may reduce visibilities through
  at least the morning hours today.  Light southerly winds will
  develop throughout the day today advecting the smoke north.

* Another cold front will swing through the region tonight.
  Precipitation is possible along and behind the front, keeping
  temperatures unseasonably cool in the 60s F on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Cold front that worked through the region yesterday afternoon and
evening has pushed into southern Missouri. High pressure centered
just south of Omaha as of 08Z will lead to decreasing northerly
winds as the ridge builds south and east this morning. Visibilities
north of I-70 are generally in the 5-7 statute miles range caused by
wildfire smoke in the near surface layer. Once the ridge shifts to
the east, southerly winds are expected to develop throughout the day
leading to gradually improving visibilities throughout the day.
Outside of the smoke, it should be a fairly pleasant day across the
region with temperatures in the upper 70s.

A quick moving cold front associated with a low pressure system in
southeastern Saskatchewan is expected to work through the region
tonight. There is the chance of a non-severe shower or thunderstorm
developing along the surface front, but much better chances of rain
exist behind the front on Friday as strong 850 mb frontogenetic band
develops and is enhanced by the right rear quadrant of relatively
strong (~150 knot) jet streak extending from the Upper Midwest into
the northeast. This will lead to fairly wet conditions below the
frontogenetic band, which is currently progged to be focused south
of I-70 through much of the day on Friday.

Temperatures will moderate towards seasonal norms through the
weekend into early next week with dry conditions.  Zonal flow sets
up next week keeping temperatures fairly seasonal, though periodic
waves break off a cut off low across the Pacific NW next week
creating sporadic precipitation chances.  Little model agreement
exists at this point with these various features.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Wildfire smoke in the near surface layer may lead to reduced
visbilities through the period. Decreasing northerly flow will
transition to south winds throughout the day on Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT