196
FXUS63 KEAX 190458
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1158 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms have initiated along and ahead of a
  cold front draped across northwestern MO this afternoon.
  Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to linger through
  the evening. A few strong storms possible.

- Increasing confidence in our first longer duration heat event
  that will begin on Friday and continue into next week. Heat
  indices on Friday and Saturday will range from 95-105 degrees
  F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A mid to upper level trough over our area will continue to push a
surface low and the associated cold front stretching across
northwest MO through the area (as of 18Z) late this evening into the
night. As the surface low continues to track to the northeast,
farther from our area, the cold front is anticipated to sag farther
to the southeast through central MO. The primary hazards with these
storms are strong winds and small hail. While SFC-based CAPE values
ranging around 1,500-2,000 J/kg will help with storm formation,
shear values remain limited which will hinder storm organization
resulting in short-lived thunderstorms. Much better shear
values remain well to the south of the area over southern MO
keeping the severe threat fairly low for our area. PWATs ranging
from 1.5-1.75 inches could suggest the potential for a few
periods of heavy rainfall, however storms are anticipated to be
isolated and progressive enough to stave off any flooding
concerns.

Quiet conditions anticipated for Thursday as stout mid to upper
level riding over the western U.S. produces a surface high over the
western Great Plains. Dry air advection behind the
aforementioned front will allow skies to clear out allowing
temperatures for tomorrow to climb. High temperatures for
tomorrow are expected to range around the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday, as stout mid to upper level ridging continues its approach
from the west, temperatures are anticipated to continue to warm. A
robust H850 low-level jet (LLJ) intensifies early Friday morning
will also aid in increased moisture transport. Friday is expected to
kick off a stretch of very hot and humid conditions with highs
anticipated to range in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the
70s. This places heat indices around 100 degrees F which will make
outdoor conditions very unpleasant. Going into Friday night, the
H850 LLJ will re-intensify, again increasing moisture. This will
result in minimum heat indices staying around the mid to upper 70s
keeping conditions hot and humid through the night. As the mid to
upper level ridge axis moves over the area, expect conditions to be
the hottest and most humid on Saturday. Small temperature spreads
within the NBM ensemble suite suggest higher confidence in high
temperatures for Friday and Saturday.

As the stout mid-upper level ridging remains the dominant driver of
weather for the second half of this week into next week, expect hot
and humid conditions to persist through the first half of next
week. There is some increased model variability for temperatures
for the start of next week, but conditions will still be very
warm. Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday with the
passage of a shortwave and associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Patchy - areas of fog are expected to develop tonight with
lingering near surface moisture from the evening showers. Fog is
expected to burn off shortly after sunrise, leading to clear
skies and light southwest winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028-
     029-037.
KS...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
     KSZ103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BT