613
FXUS63 KEAX 141815
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
115 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog with visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less is
  affecting much of central and north central Missouri this
  morning. A dense fog advisory is in effect through 9am.

- Unsettled weather with several chances of showers and
  thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Wednesday.

* Biggest threat for severe weather as well as flooding will
      come on Tuesday night

- Long Range guidance shows the potential for hazardous heat
  late next week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

This weekend through Monday the upper level pattern will remain
basically unchanged. It will feature a upper level ridge of high
pressure over the southwestern CONUS extending northward into the
eastern Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on
the lee side of the ridge. Today, a couple slow moving shortwaves
will move across Kansas and northern Oklahoma however, conditions
over the local area look benign. The main concern for today will
affect the area this morning where areas of dense fog have developed
over much of the eastern half of the forecast area reducing
visibility to 1/4 mile or less in spots. Consequently, a dense fog
advisory has been issued through 9am. Otherwise, height rises today
will aid in highs rising into the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, the
first of these slow moving shortwaves will approach the area
reaching the western CWA by Sunday morning bringing the next chance
for showers and thunderstorms. This slow moving shortwave will move
across the forecast area Sunday continuing precipitation chances.
Several additional weak shortwave will move across the area Sunday
night through Monday keeping conditions unsettled. Fortunately, with
a weakly sheared environment in place through this period several
potential appears low. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the mid
to upper 80s.

The pattern begins to change Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger
upper level shortwave moves from the west coast into the eastern
Rockies. This will act to flatten the upper level ridge over the
southwestern CONUS with the flow over becoming quasi-zonal. Tuesday
night this upper level shortwave and associated cold front will
approach the forecast area. Models depict a very unstable
environment with modest shear indicating that there may be severe
weather potential with these storms. A stout 40-45KT LLJ will
provide strong moisture transport into the area. PWATs at this time
will range between 2.2"-2.4" so storms will be extremely efficient
rain makers making flooding a concern as well. This system will exit
the area Wednesday morning however, another shortwave trough will
move through the region in its wake continuing storm chances
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday, ahead of the front,
will rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s but will cool into the low
to mid 80s behind the front on Wednesday.

Thursday, the upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS will
begin to build back northward over the eastern Rockies. This will
provide height rises across the area with highs rising into the mid
80s to near 90. Friday the ridge shifts east with the ridge axis
setting up directly over the region by late Friday. This ridge axis
will remain entrenched directly over the forecast area through the
weekend. This will potentially bring the first hot conditions of the
season with high rising into the low to perhaps mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some SCT low
clouds pass by the terminals through the afternoon. A storm
system encroaches from the west, but is RA is anticipated to
remain to the west. Lowered VFR CIGs are expected, and an
isolated SHRA is possible. Confidence remains too low to
include SHRA at this time. There is also a chances for some
FG/BR in the morning; however, that will be highly condition on
the behavior of the storm system as it moves my through the
overnight.

Conditions across central MO remain MVFR as a separate low
pressure system continues to migrate eastward. Categories are
expected to improve through the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Pesel