438
FXUS63 KEAX 161123
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Decaying convective system this morning will bring scattered
  to widespread storms to the area before sunrise. A few wind
  gusts to 50 mph are possible.

* Outflow from that convective may foster new development this
  afternoon. Adds a large amount uncertainty to the forecast though.

* Better chances for storms after sunset. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible with strong winds and locally heavy rain
  the main hazards.

* High heat returns this weekend into next week. Increasing
  potential for heat index values near 110 next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A decaying convective system was moving into northwestern MO as of
06Z. New updrafts continue to develop on the cold pool side of the
gust front, reinforcing the strong downdrafts with this system.
However, this system should continue to weaken as it tracks
southeastward in the predawn hours. Along and and behind the gust
front, 40-50 mph are most likely through 08-09Z.

This gust front adds a significant amount of uncertainty to the
forecast. Models vary quite a bit on how far south the gust front
will make it. Models that best handled the convection push the
boundary to the I-70 corridor before it loses steam later this
morning and begins to wash out and/or lift northward. It ultimately
looks like this boundary will be in the Highway 36 to I-70 corridor
by the afternoon. With that in mind, have tightened up the
temperature gradient across northern MO with middle 90s forecast
south of Highway 36. Heat index values will likely range from 100 to
105 in places along and south of the Missouri river. At this point,
with potential for the boundary to be in the vicinity and trigger
new convection, potential for some high-level clouds lingering
from the decayed MCS, confidence is not high enough to issue a
heat advisory.

That boundary may be the trigger for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms. However, it looks like the better
chances will come after sunset and overnight. A strong nocturnal
low-level jet will develop and help transport moisture
northward into the boundary. The strong moisture transport and
convergence into the boundary leads to precipitable water values
in excess of 2" through the forecast area. High freezing levels
and slow storm motions or even training of storms will lead to
locally very heavy rainfall. HREF probability matched mean QPF
shows pockets of 3-4" rain amounts from east central KS through
northeastern MO. This includes the KC Metro. There are several
CAMS showing localized amounts in excess of 4-5" as well. A
flood watch may be needed as confidence in the area most likely
to be affected increases.

With ongoing convection, didn`t dig into periods beyond the next 24-
36 hours. But trends continue to point to high heat starting this
weekend and continuing into next week. Forecast currently shows
highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values potentially
near 110 next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Trailing convection across northeastern KS and northwestern MO
may affect the KSTJ terminal over the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise,
isolated to scattered convection may develop in the vicinity
over Highway 36 to I-70 this afternoon. That convection may
linger after 00Z before developing a strong enough cold pool to
start moving southward. Overall, VFR conditions with light winds
are expected, but brief period of MVFR to IFR conditions are
possible in any convection.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB