581
FXUS63 KEAX 132341
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon primarily along and east of a line from Kirksville
  to Butler. Isolated heavy downpours possible, no severe
  weather is expected.

- Slight chances for storms Saturday evening.

- Muggy conditions continue with temperatures increasing
  through the weekend. Long term guidance shows the potential
  for hazardous heat late next week.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms expected next week,
  mainly during the overnight periods. There is the potential
  for a few of these storms to be strong.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A 500mb cyclone continues to spin its way through the Ozarks. Water
vapor imagery showed the eastern boundary of a broad 500mb high to
the SW working its way eastward which will 1) push the low steadily
eastward through the day, and 2) possibly act to keep showers around
through the day east of the I-35 corridor. For those west of this
boundary, it will be a fairly mundane day. Sunshine returns as
clouds vacate; however, heat and humidity build bringing that air
you can wear feeling. For those east of this boundary, broad low
level convergence combined with 500mb CVA presents a wide scale
environment for lift. Through the morning hours, the lower layer of
the atmosphere has become fairly disorganized. As the high to the
west encroaches, low level flow becomes more divergent which has
broken up the coverage of showers. Scattered rain is expected to
maintain across central and eastern MO closer to the center of the
low where convergence and lift is slightly better. Like yesterday,
the opportunities for sparse showers remain across central MO as it
only takes a little perturbation at the surface or 850mb to get
enough upward motion needed to rain. There is certainly enough
moisture with PWATs above 1.5 inches and 850mb RH above 90 percent.
It is just a matter of getting something to lift. As we saw
Thursday, it is likely we will see more shower development during
the late afternoon post daytime heating. Of course, that will be
highly conditional on weak advection and resident cloud cover. CAMs
continue to suggest isolated development across interior MO mainly
east of US-65, but potentially extending all the way west to the I-
35 corridor. Showers and most likely going to be concentrated along
and east of a line from Kirksville to Butler. While CAPE and shear
remain meager, there is a chance that a few thunderstorms could
develop. Isolated short duration heavy rain continues to be the
primary hazard with lapse rates and shear not supportive of hail or
other severe hazards.

Shortwave ridging builds Saturday keeping the day mostly dry (from a
rainfall standpoint). Southerly low level flow continues to pump
warm air and moisture into the region lifting dew points across the
region to the mid 60s towards 70 degrees. This will make the air
feel a bit thick. Fortunately, apparent temperatures only tick up a
couple degrees over the air temperatures. Highs Saturday reach into
the upper 80s with heat index values reach into the low 90s. A
shortwave trough rounding the top of the ridge brings a slight
chance for thunderstorms toward the evening hours; however, CAM
guidance seems to favor this small complex passing by through
eastern KS with only a slight chance it makes it to the state line.

Broad scale ascent and CVA aloft bring more opportunities for
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Projected instability is
expected to be greater; however, the lack of shear once again yields
heavy rain to be the primary hazard; however, isolated hail cannot
be ruled out. Guidance has been pretty divergent on the location of
showers and thunderstorms at this time, but consensus resides over
eastern KS, western MO, and southern IA. The long term pattern shows
the potential for a strong wave to pass through the CONUS bringing
chances for more substantial convection Tuesday PM through Thursday;
however, many uncertainties remain. This wave could also present our
first brush with hazardous heat as heat index values creep toward
100F south of the KC metro. Once that wave moves out, expansive
ridging across the 500mb level ridging brings our first substantial
opportunity for widespread excessive heat as heat index values look
to ascend towards 100F next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period. There is a potential for
fog early tomorrow morning for KSTJ, KMCI, and KMKC. However,
only reduced the visibilities down to MVFR conditions as the
more favorable areas for fog will be farther east and conditions
are anticipated to be fairly marginal. Winds remain around 5-8
knots for most of the afternoon tomorrow with VFR conditions
returning by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier