566
FXUS63 KEAX 060735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
231 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms linger across far NW MO and NE KS
  through the overnight. An isolated strong storm with gusty
  winds and heavy rain is possible. Rain rates look to be low
  enough to curtail flooding concerns.

- Storms stay NW of the I-35 corridor most of the day. Some
  isolated storms are possible across central MO. A few of these
  storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds.

- Storms are expected to move eastward this evening and through
  the overnight. Coverage looks to become more scattered,
  especially by daybreak Tuesday.

- More seasonal temperatures expected this week before warming
  back above average next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

An area of showers and thunderstorms is slowly making its way into
far NE KS and NW MO. The surface front is expected to detach from
the parent boundary and race ahead of the storms making them become
more elevated. This will result in a less organized convective
environment. Storms are expected to be maintained by passing
shortwaves and CVA aloft as well as the 850mb front which is
expected to progress much more slowly. Obs and CAMs continue to show
a reasonable favorable convective environment with a narrow band of
CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along the line. This could lead to some
embedded stronger storms; however, that favorability is waning. As
the surface front moves into Missouri, the MUCAPE disperses becoming
more diluted yielding enough instability to keep storms going, but
not enough for deep convection.

The upper level front is expected to stall out across NE MO and NE
KS residing there for much of the overnight. With the general
weakening of substantial lift over the area, rain rates looks to
remain relatively benign enough to mitigate most flooding concerns
to just pooling due to excessive runoff. As the nocturnal LLJ
weakens after daybreak, storm coverage becomes more scattered
bringing some breaks in the precipitation through the morning.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along the
surface front which by midday should be making it east of the I-35
corridor.

The moving of this front across the region through the day also sets
up a dichotomy in high temperatures. Rain cooled areas of NW MO and
NE KS might struggle to reach 70 degrees whereas areas across
central MO flirt with the 90s. This warm sector across MO could also
pose a potential severe weather threat as the front works its way
into that region later in the afternoon/evening. Fortunately, CAPE
and shear values are overall fairly low; however, there are some
pockets of 20+ knot shear and 1000+ J/kg CAPE which could entice the
development of an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small
hail. The overall severe threat remains marginal.

A secondary surface cold front develops colocated with the upper
level boundaries and migrates its way into the region Monday night.
This wholesale shift pushes showers and thunderstorms through the
region late Monday night into early Tuesday which is when areas
along and east of I-35 will see their highest chances for
precipitation. Isolated showers and thunderstorms linger through
Tuesday afternoon; however, cooler, more stable behind the front
eventually moves in dissipating storms through the afternoon hours.
By Tuesday evening, more seasonable temperatures envelope the area.
Highs Tuesday through Friday start in the (rain cooled) upper 60s
elevating tot he mid to upper 70s. By the end of the week,
southerly midlevel flow opens back up lifting highs back into
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Convection continues across far SE Nebraska, NW Missouri, and SW
Iowa along and ahead of a slow moving cold front, but remains
50 miles NW of STJ as of 5z Monday. At the moment, all
terminals are VFR with some passing higher level clouds with 5
to 10 knot southerly winds. These conditions should continue
through the overnight hours. A few isolated showers and storms
could impact STJ in the 10z to 15z window Monday morning, which
is currently handled with a PROB30. Otherwise, low end
precipitation chances continue into Monday afternoon, but
confidence is low enough to preclude any mention at this time.
Winds will eventually shift northerly behind the cold front,
which should move through STJ by around 20z Monday and be
approaching the KC metro terminals by around 22z. MVFR CIGs are
likely to develop behind the front by late Monday afternoon at
STJ and by late Monday evening at the KC metro terminals.
Another round of showers and storms will be possible after 4z
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Williams