066
FXUS63 KEAX 300351
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1051 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain builds eastward this weekend. Saturday looks dry for most,
  better chances late Saturday night into Sunday.

- Seasonal temperatures through Saturday, trending cooler next
  week. Well below normal temperatures possible Thursday and
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Broad upper ridging, over the Southwestern US currently, will begin
to be suppressed as a shortwave trough moves over the Northern
Rockies Saturday and into the Central to northern Plains Sunday. Low
to mid-level moisture transport ahead of this wave, mainly into KS
and NE, but clipping western MO, will lead to scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms across far northwestern MO Saturday afternoon
and evening. HREF probabilities for greater than 0.01" in the 24
hours ending at 4 pm Saturday, show only a 10-20% in far
northwestern MO and extreme NE KS. But those probabilities increase
significantly later in the evening and overnight, as the
shortwave trough slowly shifts to the southeast. By Monday,
widespread shower activity looks likely across eastern KS and
western MO as the shortwave moves over the region. Instability
is weak with this system so feel a mention of isolated storms is
reasonable. The threat of severe weather is negligible given
the weak instability and weak shear. That shortwave will move
east of the area late Monday into Tuesday.

A stronger upper-level trough will evolve over Ontario and the Great
Lakes region in the middle of next week. This strong upper
trough will help push a strong cold front southward through the
region. Much cooler temperatures move into the area for the
later half of next week as a result. Ensemble guidance shows low
probabilities for temperatures falling below 40 degrees for
portions of northern and northeastern MO Friday AM. If we see
temperatures drop below 40, that would be nearly 20 degrees
below normal. So this is very cool airmass moving into the
region late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with bkn high clouds expected
thru 21Z-22Z aft which bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are
fcst. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 16Z when winds will incr
out of the SSE btn 5-10kts before again becmg lgt and vrb aft
21Z-22Z. There is the chc for a few showers very late in the
TAF pd however conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at his
time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73