407
FXUS63 KEAX 101723
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy conditions today with gusts around 35-45 mph with some
isolated 50+ mph possible as a front moves through. A wind advisory
is in effect from 9Z-15Z for areas north of a line from Doniphan to
Randolph counties.

- Cooling trend begins Friday. Coldest temperatures of the week
anticipated this weekend with below-freezing highs.

- A few low-end chances (below 30%) for light snow later this
  week for NE MO as waves pass to the north/northeast. Best
  chances for any snow come this Saturday. Accumulations are
  expected to be minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Ongoing breezy conditions north of HWY-36 expected to continue to
spread farther south through the morning hours. Winds gusts of 35-45
mph with isolated instances of 50+ mph are anticipated this morning
with the passage of a northeast to southwest oriented cold front
extending from a low over the Western Great Lakes Region. Steepening
lapse rates directly behind the cold front and an increased pressure
gradient with 40-50 kts at the top of the mixed layer suggest the
potential for a few instances of 50+ mph wind gusts. The most
favorable area for the strongest winds gusts will be for areas north
of a line from Doniphan to Randolph counties given those areas are
closer to the increased pressure gradient associated with the
surface low. Therefore, a wind advisory has been issued for these
areas in effect until 15Z this morning. Given such strong wind gusts
and recent dry conditions, please be mindful if burning as fires
could spread quickly during this time. As the surface and cold front
continue their track to the east, winds will gradually begin to
diminish late this morning into the afternoon. A few 20-30 mph wind
gusts will still be possible through the afternoon. Concerning
precip, this front has only produced a few reports of traces from a
few ASOS sites across the area. Given the layer of dry air near the
surface and limited moisture with this front, measurable precip
remains unlikely. Taking a quick look at temperatures, as winds
reorient to the north/northwest behind the cold front, temperatures
will mostly cool as we transition to the afternoon. Wind chills
throughout the day are expected to range from the upper teens
(mainly areas near the MO/IA border) to the upper 30s (locations
near central MO).

For Thursday a transient high pressure, on the backside of the cold
front, descends out of the Northern Great Plains towards WI. During
the predawn hours as the high shifts to our northeast, winds slowly
begin their transition to the south/southeast. This will yield
warmer high temperatures tomorrow across most of the area, ranging
from the low 40s to upper 50s. A few locations near our northeastern
fringes (Putnam and Schuyler counties) could stay in the 30s. Some
uncertainty exists, however, with high temperatures for Thursday. A
H700 shortwave is anticipated to move over the area starting
Thursday morning. This, collocated with a swathe of moisture could
yield some extensive cloud coverage limiting the effects of daytime
heating. For now, the more extensive cloud cover seems to remain
across the northern fringes of our area suggesting cooler high
temperatures north of HWY-36. Depending on how far south the cloud
coverage extends, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than
forecasted. Additionally, with the passage of this shortwave, there
are low-end chances (below 30%) for light snow for the northeastern
corner (near Putnam and Schuyler counties). A layer of dry air near
the surface will make it challenging for snow to reach the surface.
No accumulations are anticipated for our area however, a more
favorable environment for snow accumulations remains to our
northeast.

A cooling trend commences Friday into the weekend as winds shift
back to the north with an Arctic High dipping into lower 48. Highs
for Friday will range just below-freezing to the low 40s. Saturday
brings another low-end (albeit better than Thursday) chance for
light snow once again for the northeast portions of our CWA (east of
I-35, north of HWY-36). Some uncertainty exists regarding snow
accumulations. The LREF suggests there is a 30-50% chance for
measurable snow mainly for Putnam, Schuyler, and Adair counties. The
coldest temperatures over the next 7 days come Sunday as the Arctic
High continues its track to the southeast. Early morning lows will
range from just below zero to the preteens. Highs will range from
the upper teens to just below freezing. A mid to upper level ridge,
approaching from the western U.S., will spark a warming trend
resulting in temperatures above seasonal averages by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The low pressure is slowly moving eastward, which will allow
winds to diminish from the gusts earlier this morning. However,
gusts around 30 kts may remain possible through much of the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings are slowly scattering out. Overcast
skies may return later but bases should remain VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull