891
FXUS63 KEAX 161948
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
248 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several chances for scattered to widespread storms this
  afternoon into the night. Strong to damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall will be the main threats.

- Hotter, more humid conditions anticipated today mainly for
  areas along and south of I-70. Triple digit heat indices are
  possible. This is dependent on how storms and features develop
  through the afternoon.

- Confidence growing in widespread triple digit heat indices
  this weekend into the first half of next week. Heat indices up
  to 110 F possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A cold front, extending out of a surface low over the MN/IA/WI
border (as of 19Z), stretches across southern IA, in between HWY-36
and just north of the KC Metro. This afternoon, a few thunderstorms
will be possible with the cold front continuing to push south into
our area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with CAPE
values exceeding 3,000 J/kg aiding in storm formation. Bulk shear
values are slightly better than they have been ranging from 25-30
kts. Even though this is not ideal for severe storms, this may be
just enough for them to hold together long enough to produce
isolated severe conditions. Inverted-v soundings, dry air aloft,
DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong
to damaging winds.

However, there is still some uncertainty as CAMs diverge on
solutions. The NAMNST shows widespread convection developing along
and south of the I-70 corridor including the KC Metro. The HRRR
keeps the convection fairly isolated mostly along and south of I-70.
So, Hi-Res models suggest that we could see isolated to widespread
convection south of HWY-36. Models seem to agree the front stalls
out somewhere south of HWY-36 near I-70. The coverage of storms will
depend on how much the environment is able to recover given this
morning`s convection. The current satellite shot (as of 19Z) shows
that extensive cloud coverage has dissipated and cu fields have
developed in the southern half of MO.

Another round of storms is possible late this evening into early
Thursday as the lagging elevated fronts near the 925MB-850MB layer
continues to push farther south. Strong to severe storms will once
again be possible. Storms are anticipated to be elevated as a
diurnal cap develops across area. Good instability (1,000-2,000 J/kg
of CAPE) will help with strengthening updrafts and 20-30 kts of
shear may help storms to organize. Strong to damaging winds and
heavy rainfall (PWATs around 2 inches) will be the main concerns.
But again, high uncertainty still remains. The severe potential late
this evening will be dependent on whether or not the atmosphere will
be able to recover from this afternoon`s convection (if it is
realized). If there is robust afternoon convection, strong to
damaging winds will be the main concern with heavy rain being the
secondary threat. If there is not robust afternoon convection, then
the main threat will be heavy rainfall with strong to damaging winds
being the secondary threat. The severe threat is anticipated to
diminish the deeper into the night go. However, areas that have
already received multiple rounds of rain (mainly northern MO) could
see isolated flooding especially if storms begin to train. For now,
MBE vectors just after midnight keep storms somewhat progressive,
but uncertainty is still high.

Thursday afternoon, there will be a chance for some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with remnant surface boundaries as well as a
H500 shortwave moving through the flow. For our area, severe chances
appear to be very low due to weak forcing and a fairly stable
environment. Slightly more favorable conditions for severe weather
will remain in southern MO. As far as temperatures for tomorrow,
highs are anticipated to range in the mid to upper 70s mainly north
of I-70 and low to mid 80s south of I-70. The difference will be
mostly felt in the decrease in dew point temperature with most areas
remaining below 70 F. Some areas south of the KC Metro may reach the
low 70s.

Mid to upper level ridging residing over the western U.S. tracks
towards the east as we go into the weekend. A surface high also
pushes over the eastern U.S. shifting winds to the south. This will
result in the start of a warming trend this Friday into early next
week. As heat indices climb to 100-110 F, heat headlines may be
necessary. Confidence continues to grow as guidance remains
consistent with each model run. A few weak shortwaves bringing
spotty chances for rain may help to cool temperatures a few degrees,
but high uncertainty exists in timing and location with these
features.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period. A round of storms will
be possible this afternoon, however left in a PROB30 group due
to low confidence in location. Another rounds of storms is
possible in the overnight hours, but again there is high
uncertainty with timing and location. Winds gradually shift more
northerly as a cold front pushes south of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier