443
FXUS63 KEAX 221913
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
213 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected late this evening. A few
  strong storms possible with damaging winds being the main
  concern.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through next week...with
  dangerous heat possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The upper levels are defined by a large ridge over southern CONUS
with zonal westerly flow over the region. There is a weak trough
over the central Plains with a weak jet max rounding the base of the
trough (winds up to 70 knots) over NE. In the lower levels, there is
a surface high over southeastern CONUS. A leeside low has developed
to our west and moved over eastern KS/NE. Southwesterly winds have
lead to modest warm and moist air advection with a warmer, more
moist air mass to our south. This is shown in high temperatures
forecasted to be in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the low to
mid 70s. As the high pressure stagnates in southeast CONUS, expect
high temperatures to remain in 90s through next week.

Tonight, the surface low is expected to move northeast over the
NE/IA border. The associated cold front is oriented from the
northeast to the southwest. It extends from southwest IA to the OK
panhandle. A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the boundary late this evening. Storms will develop in
northeast MO and extend back into eastern KS along the surface
front. Strong to severe storms are possible with strong instability.
Even though CAPE values range from 2,500-3,000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse
rates stay around 6.5 degrees (fairly stable) which may hinder hail
growth. Bulk shear values stay around 30 knots and a low level jet
sets up which could aid a wind threat. Additionally, PWAT values
between 2.0-2.5 inches suggest a potential for heavy rainfall. This
may be another concern if storms begin to train or last in duration
however, it appears that they should be progressive enough. The GFS
has remained fairly consistent with yesterday`s guidance which adds
some confidence. At this time, strong to damaging winds seem to be
the main threat with hail as a secondary threat. These showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to be out of the area early Sunday
morning.

For the second half of the weekend expect heat indices to near 100
degrees F. A warming trend is expected for the start of next week as
heat indices are expected to exceed 100 degrees F. At this time,
heat advisories appear likely for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday,
winds shift to the north and provide a little relief from the triple
digit heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist outside the 00Z-03Z period
for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will remain out of the
southwest and continue to occasionally gust to around 30 knots
through the day. Once the storms and showers pass winds will shift
to the north-northwest and stay around 5-10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier