Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 080426
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 PM CDT FRI MAY 7 2021

Key Messages:

1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday night
through early Sunday morning, with rainfall amounts averaging
between 1 to 1.5 inches.

2) There will be a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Saturday night, with damaging straight line wind gusts being the
main threat.

3) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through much of the
upcoming week.

Discussion:

The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS
is defined by troughing across the eastern and western CONUS with
mid level ridging across the High Plains. Mid level cloud cover
has moved into the region this afternoon with a few scattered
pockets of drizzle or very light rain thanks to some weak
isentropic ascent, with temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from the
upper 60s to low 70s. Mid level clouds should hang around through
the remainder of the day, but we will stay dry outside of a few
stray sprinkles.

Late tonight (around midnight or so), as warm air advection and
the low level jet increases, showers and perhaps even some
thunderstorms are expected to develop along an axis extending from
southeast Nebraska into southwestern Missouri and move eastward
through the overnight hours. Severe weather is not expected with
this, but could drop a quick quarter of an inch of rain or so. The
daylight hours of Saturday should be dry, with highs ranging from
the upper 70s across souther portions of the region to the mid
50s across northeast Missouri as a warm front looks to move into
the region before stalling out somewhere near the Interstate 70
corridor.

As a shortwave trough and accompanying surface low comes across
the Central Plains tomorrow, thunderstorms are expected to develop
across central Kansas by late afternoon and move eastward,
eventually growing upscale into clusters/MCS/squall line as it
nears the Missouri/Kansas border by late evening and moving
through the KC metro sometime between 11 pm Saturday and 4 am
Sunday. ML CAPE values will likely range somewhere between 1000
and 2000 J/kg with more than enough deep layer shear to promote
well organized updrafts. A few bowing segments could be possible
as the MCS/squall line moves through eastern Kansas/KC
metro/western Kansas. As such, SPC has much of the region
(including the KC metro) within a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms tomorrow night. The primary threat will be from
damaging straight line wind gusts, but some marginally severe hail
and perhaps even a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. In
addition to the possibility for severe thunderstorms, widespread
rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected. While our 3-hour
flash flood guidance remains in excess of 2.5", a few rivers may
see elevated levels in basins that receive the most robust
activity.

Any lingering shower and thunderstorm activity should exit to the
east by noon Sunday. Sunday into much of next week will feature
below normal temperatures as an active upper pattern remains over
the central CONUS.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 7 2021

Light and variable winds persist through much of the overnight
hours. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are initiating along a
line of surface convergence and isentropic ascent just each of
Emporia. This line gradually slides eastward passing through the
region after midnight. Precipitation is expected to exit the
terminals shortly after sunrise Saturday. CIGs are expected to
break up during the day with diurnal heating accelerating SE winds
gusting to around 20-25kts. A second round of more potent showers
and thunderstorms is expected to pass through the region past 00Z
Saturday evening. Storms are expected to remain in the region
throughout the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...Pesel


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