Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 020816
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
216 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 216 AM CST THU FEB 2 2023

Key messages:

- Near or above normal temperatures are expected through the rest of
  the week with the exception of a brief cool down on Friday.

- Next chance for precipitation not until early next week.

Discussion:

  After three days of well below normal temperatures, conditions
will return to near normal. After a cold start to the day in the
subtle height rises and downslope westerly slope will aid in highs
rising into the mid 30s to near 40. Late Tonight into tomorrow
morning a upper level shortwave will push through the region forcing
a weak cold front through the area. Cold air behind this front will
be delayed but will provide enhanced mixing allowing highs to rise
into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Cold air will begin to advect into
the area late Thursday into Thursday night when the pressure
gradient tightens across the area in response to a H1041 surface
high building into the northern Plains and the into the Upper
Midwest. This will drop lows into the mid single digits to mid teens
with wind chill values in the single digits above zero to single
digits below zero. The area will move under the influence of the
surface high on Friday morning before sliding east during the
afternoon. Weak mixing will keep highs in the mid 20s across the
northeastern CWA however, late day WAA across the southwestern CWA
may aid in highs reaching the mid 30s.

The cool down Friday will be brief however, as the weekend will
feature a series of progressive, low amplitude, troughs and ridges
traversing the area. This will keep cold air at bay and provide for
deeper mixing allowing highs to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s
Saturday and the 50s CWA-wide on Sunday. Monday, a upper level
trough will dig into the central Rockies causing upstream upper
level ridging across the region. This coupled with enhanced WAA out
ahead of a cold front associated with the upper level system over
the Rockies will aid in highs rising into the lower 50s to lower
60s. Model solutions differ on the evolution of the upper level
trough that digs into the central Rockies as we move into Monday
night into Tuesday. The GFS creates a split flow as the upper level
trough which will extend from the northern Plains into the
southwestern CONUS will cut off a upper low in the base of trough
with a weaker northern stream of the trough. The EC has a move
progressive trough move through the region Tuesday. Either solution
would force a cold front into the area on Tuesday providing for
rain. Due to timing difference in model solutions and evolution the
NBM appears to hold onto PoPs too long as precipitation would look
to come to an end Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s
and with little cold air behind the cold front, temperatures are
expected to remain in the 40s on Wednesday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST WED FEB 1 2023

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just few-sct high clouds.
Winds will be out of the SW btn 5-10kts thru 16Z-18Z when a cold
front will approach the TAF sites veering the winds to the west
while remaining btn 5-10kts. Winds will continue to veer to the
north behind the cold front btn 19Z-21Z and will increase to nr
15kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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