557
FXUS63 KEAX 080942
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild and breezy conditions on Tuesday create slightly elevated
  fire danger.

* Cold front moves through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning with brisk winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Surface high pressure centered over Wisconsin will continue to shift
east today with south-sothwest winds developing on the west side of
the high.  This will advect mild air air into the region.  Lingering
stratus across eastern Kansas is expected to shift east today,
leading to cloudy conditions through the morning hours with clearing
from west to east this afternoon into this evening.

Lee cyclogenesis is expected today across Saskatchewan with the wave
deepening into Minnesota tonight and building into the Great Lakes
on Tuesday.  This wave will increase the pressure gradient across
the area, and lead to breezy conditions which will help boost
temperatures on Tuesday 10 degrees above seasonal norms.  The breezy
conditions will also produce a slightly elevated fire danger across
the region. The cold front associated with the Great Lakes low is
expected to move through the region Tuesday night.  While the front
is expected to move through the region dry, the cold air advection
behind the front will aid in steepening low level lapse rates
bringing 40 knot winds at 925 hpa to the surface.  Winds are
expected to gradually relax throughout the day on Wednesday.

Moisture starved shortwave dropping through Wednesday night into
Thursday has shifted a bit farther northeast severely limiting the
precipitation potential across northern Missouri. Because of this,
have drastically cut back pops, with accumulating precipitation
looking more likely farther north in eastern Iowa into Central
Illinois.

Some of the coldest air of the season (-25 to -30 C at 925 mb)
attempts to spill southward on the backside of this wave but
modifies as it migrates south especially in areas with limited snow
cover. Arctic high slides south across the western Plains Friday
night, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far the arctic
air can penetrate into the lower 48 as leeward troughing in the
Central Rockies creates a thermal battleground across the central
US. Probabilities of temperatures less than 15 degrees or
greater than 35 degrees are both 10-30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Temporary clearing has developed across much of the area;
however, as southwest winds develop stratus across eastern KS/OK
is expected to build back east before scattering out through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT