664
FXUS63 KEAX 020813
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably warm conditions, upwards of 10-15 degrees above
  normal, continue thru the weekend.

* Trend toward cooler, more seasonal temperatures begins as
  early as overnight Sunday into Monday for northern areas.

* Precipitation chances early next week, approaching 30-40%+ at
  times overnight Sunday thru Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Captain`s Log: Mid shift 7 of 7. Subtle signs of change. However not
enough to dislodge currently parched conditions. Temperatures remain
warm to hot. Morale continues to waver for those yearning for fall
conditions. Alas, substantial change continues to be signaled...
just need to hold out a few more days.

Across much of the area early this morning, conditions remained
largely similar to what feel like the last 50 nights/mornings. Clear
to mostly clear skies, light/variable to calm winds, and
temperatures from the upper 50s to lower 60s. For a very small sub-
section of the region, there is a compact MCV attempting to squeeze
out light precipitation within the otherwise dry airmass. This is
currently (3am ish) occurring between the KC Northlands and St.
Joseph, near/along the Missouri River. While radar depictions would
suggest rain reaching the ground, the 10kft cloud bases and dry air
mass below suggest that, at best, sprinkles are reaching the ground.
Should more persistent and stronger (but still weak) convection be
achieved, a lucky very few may see enough to get the ground wet.
This activity should wane as it gradually drifts eastward this
morning. Further west into Kansas, sandwiched between the eastward
exiting ridge and the gradually building western ridge, is a ribbon
of moisture and increasing (LLJ induced) isentropic lift. Hi-res
guidance has hinted at a few weak showers blossoming, and can
already be seen on regional radar mosaics. Unfortunately, this
activity is not expected to reach the forecast area, remaining
displaced to far W/SW and weakening through the early-mid morning.
Last feature of casual note is a backdoor front (dry line ish) to
lift northward through AR into southern MO. As this interacts with
the narrow area of moisture, it "may" spark off a few showers mainly
across southern Missouri. Suppose it is possible something into far
southern CWA, but appears unlikely as the boundary washes out. An
awful lot to say... the area should otherwise expect more of the
same today, sunshine, light to modest south winds, and highs in the
mid to upper 80s. A few spots touching 90 possible as well.

Looking through the end of the work week no general changes among
the deterministic and ensemble guidance with regards to pattern
evolution and resulting sensible weather conditions. Broad mid-upper
ridge east of the area to continue to gradually drift east while a
Western CONUS trough digs onshore and builds a new mid-upper ridge
into the Plains. Eventually, these two areas merge/blend, yielding a
large mid-upper ridge from the Plains through Eastern CONUS to end
the work week and start the weekend. By Sunday, more substantial
pattern shift begins to move into the region as said Western CONUS
trough moves intro/through the Intermountain West. Through Sunday,
the primary, and really only, change to our existing weather is an
increase in southerly winds. Potential for sustained winds to reach
around 20mph and gusts to 30 mph, mainly for NW/N areas. Still
increased winds versus recent elsewhere. Highs remain very warm
(seasonally speaking) in the mid-upper 80s to end the work week and
through Sunday.

Now for the more substantial changes, synoptic guidance has tended
to come into better agreement on timing and progression in recent
couple of runs. As the western trough lifts NE through the Central
and Northern Plains, resulting surface low and associated cold front
looks to approach the area late Sunday and overnight. This too would
provide the first appreciable precipitation chances in quite some
time. While the deterministic runs of the major synoptic models are
in fair agreement, there remains enough variability in their
ensembles to prevent PoPs from rising much more than the low 40s at
the moment, but suspect these values begin to increase for at least
NW/N areas in the coming runs. This boundary unfortunately looks to
stall across the area as the parent surface low races into Canada.
This is poised to drop northern areas into the lower 70s Monday,
while southern areas may see another day into the mid 80s, dependent
on final frontal location/stall. This too keeps precipitation
opportunities near/north of the front. Southern areas will have to
wait until trailing surface high builds into/drops through the
Northern Plains and reinforces/pushes the cold front through
sometime during the latter half of Tuesday. This will push
additional precipitation chances across the remainder of the area
and drop temperatures back into more seasonal conditions. Peeking
through the remainder of the week, models diverge significantly, but
a general takeaway appears to be that the overall pattern may remain
on the more active side.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only mid
to high level clouds moving through and light southeasterly to
southerly winds less than 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...CDB