505
FXUS66 KEKA 172031
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
131 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures warming above normal again for the weekend with minor
  to locally moderate heat risk.

* Possible thunderstorms across the interior next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures are expected to warm back to above normal
for the weekend. Moisture will increase over the weekend into next
week bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms to the interior early
to mid next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast
continues to make its way northeast into British Columbia,
enabling temperatures to warm back up for interior regions of
Northwest California. The warming temperatures aloft at 850 mb
will likely make stratus more prevalent through at the coast
through the weekend. Flow is expected to be fairly light,
although the 700 mb winds are generally out of the south which
should keep smoke to the north and east of the area unless a new
fire develops to the south.

For the weekend high pressure strengthens and edges slightly to the
west. This is expected to bring warmer temperatures to the inland
areas. Highs are expected to be back in the mid 90s to around 100 in
the warmer valleys. This will bring more minor to locally moderate
heat risk.

Starting Monday, monsoonal moisture is anticipated to make it`s way
north and west into the area. At this point there doesn`t appear to
be a trigger to get any thunderstorms going and instability is
fairly limited on Monday and Tuesday. Midweek has the best chance
to see some thunderstorms in Trinity County with moisture from
the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Elida possibly
moving into the area. This will need to be monitored closely.


&&

.AVIATION...Upper level ridging will encourage diurnal stratus
development overnight. VFR conditions will continue for terminals
in Northwest California into this evening. Then, a compressed
layer of stratus is expected to form along the coast this evening
bringing chances for fog and IFR/LIFR conditions. Reversal
southerly flow is also expected along the northern Humboldt and
Del Norte coast overnight. VFR conditions are expected for
interior regions through this TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds and steep seas will keep seas hazardous
for small craft through today. Winds will remain higher in the
southern waters with near gale gusts to localized areas of gale
gusts this afternoon in the lee of Cape Mendocino. In general,
winds should start to diminish, with a sharper decline by Sunday.
Winds are expected to be only around 10 kt Monday and Tuesday
before starting to increase again late in the week.

A larger southerly swell is starting to show up in the models.
This is from Tropical Storm Elida off the Mexico coast. The
current wave model shows these building to around 4 feet at 14
seconds on Monday. This could create some larger breakers than
usual on the southern facing beaches, especially south of Cape
Mendocino.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png