107
FXUS66 KEKA 152228
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
328 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected to continue through the
foreseeable future. Interior temperatures continue to drop below
seasonal normals into early next week. Breezy to windy westerly to
northwesterly winds this afternoon and evening, with much
stronger winds are expected this Sunday evening into Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad upper-level trough centered over the
Vancouver Island and Pacific NW will aid in continuing a cooling
trend through early next week. Latest WV satellite imagery show
high-level clouds spreading across much of the northern portion of
the forecast area this afternoon, while some pocket of cumulus
clouds are present over the higher terrain in Humboldt and Del
Norte counties. As expected, high temperatures are running up to
near 10 degrees cooler today compared with Friday`s reading, with
at or near seasonably temperatures. Breezy west northwest are
expected to continue this afternoon over the coastal headlands and
exposed ridges, but a bit weaker than Friday evening.

Cold air will continue to flow over Northern California Sunday
through early next week as a embedded shortwave trough within the
upper-level trough swing east-southeast. The primary concern with
this feature looks to be wind, and gusts from 25 to around 35 mph
are likely across Lake and southern Mendocino counties, and
latest NBM ensemble guidance is indicating a chance (20 to 30%) of
gusts exceeding 40 mph at Cow Mtn and near Cobb in Lake County.
With afternoon RH values forecast to reach the low 20 to teens
each afternoon this weekend, there exists a slight risk for rapid
spread of grass fires on Sunday. See Fire Wx section for more
details.

Otherwise, slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with
clear skies should result in chilly overnight temperatures once
winds decouple. There is a chance (20 to 40%) for brief morning
frost in the colder valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt
counties Sunday night. Precip chances have dried up with recent
guidance, with general consensus that approaching moisture with
this shortwave will split offshore on Sunday and miss NWRN CA to
the north and south...with less than a 5% chance of one hundredth
of an inch in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to slowly trend back toward
climatological normals next week, with longwave troughing
continuing aloft well into the work week.



&&

.AVIATION...Gusty northerly winds originally scattered and
cleared out cloud cover this morning with some exception for cirrus
groups streaking by at higher altitudes, flight conditions will
prevail in VFR categories through the TAF period. LLWS, low level
wind shear will pose a threat at most terminals this afternoon
through evening with velocity and directional differences.
Northerlies begin to back off by 6z at KCEC and KACV. KUKI will also
have challenging LLWS at times with intermittent gusty northerlies
lasting through the evening but will begin to ease by 5 or 6z as
well. /EYS


&&

.MARINE...Gales are in effect for the southern inner and outer
waters through Sunday, with the southern inner zones PZZ455 lasting
a bit longer into the evening on Sunday. Steep square waves return
Sunday morning for the northern waters, bringing 6 to 8ft wave
heights at 6 to 8 seconds...which will last through to Monday and
possibly Tuesday for the northern outer waters, PZZ470. Gale
conditions will persist in the lee of Cape Mendocino as the
northerlies accelerate around the Cape, to the south.  /EYS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy west to northwest winds continues this
afternoon and evening, especially through the channeled terrain and
exposed ridges. Moderate to good RH recoveries was observed this
morning with generally 50 to 70% on the ridges and interior
valleys, mostly in the eastern portion of Mendocino, Trinity and
Lake counties. Daytime RH values are expected to continue
lowering with values from 15 to 25% range this afternoon. This
very dry conditions is expected to continue over the eastern
portions of the forecast area with RH values in the 20`s and
teens. Winds are expected to become breeze to windy on Sunday,
with gusts up to around 35 mph. A chance (20 to 30%) for gusts to
reach above 40 mph at Cow Mtn and Cobb in Lake County, but mixing
down into some spots around Clearlake Sunday evening. Winds
shift to north-northeast Sunday overnight. These is expected to
bring drier air and continue with critical conidtions in fire
weather zone 264. These winds are expected to diminish into Monday
morning. However, the daytime humidity are forecasted to be in
teens. A Red Flag Warning remains in zone 264 (southern Lake),
from late tonight through Monday evening, primarily for the
possibility of rapid spreading grass fires.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Monday
     for CAZ264.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ455-475.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png