500
FXUS66 KEKA 272048
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
148 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather will peak this weekend with highs
near 100 for the interior. Warm and Sunny weather will even approach
the coast by Sunday. There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms
over the interior early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...In the short term, high pressure will
continue to build across the area into the weekend. High
temperatures will march upward each day, peaking on Sunday with
highs around 100 across most interior valleys. At least on Sunday,
the potential for highs above 100 is very high (over 90%), but
probabilities drop quickly for higher temperatures with less than 10
to 20% chance of highs hitting 105 for most valleys. This level of
heat correlates to a minor or moderate risk of heat related illness.
Everyone is encouraged to limit their outdoor activity during the
heat of the day. Coastal stratus will erode to a more substantial
effect this weekend as offshore flow gradually builds, promoting
unusually warm and clear daytime conditions along the coast.
Saturday and especially Sunday, NBM places a 70 to 90% chance of
highs over 70 in Arcata and McKinleyville.

High pressure will gradually break early next week as low pressure
skirts just south of the area into the Central California Coast.
Breaking high pressure will help to decrease highs back into the 90s
and pull more marine influence back along the coast, though offshore
wind will most likely keep marine influence shallow and sporadic
Monday and Tuesday. Global ensembles show a strong and consistent
signal that the low will also help enhance midlevel instability and
pull in some moisture from the south, likely helping to produce
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Early convection models show a
very weak signal (10% chance) of isolated nocturnal thunderstorms
early Monday morning. Any storms that form overnight would likely
push to the coast form the east. There is much higher confidence
(30% chance) of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the
interior Monday and Tuesday, mostly concentrated over high terrain
during the peak heat of the afternoon. Meager moisture and dry low
level conditions would likely encourage storms to be mostly dry.
Beyond storms, there is high confidence that the general pattern
next week will remain warm, dry, and benign. /JHW /EYS



&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Stratus continues to blanket the
Humboldt and Del Norte coasts early this afternoon, but has started
to lift and scatter out. VFR conditions are expected for the day,
with perhaps brief IFR/MVFR impacts at the coast if stratus pushes
in. Breezy northerly winds are expected today, especially at CEC,
where winds could gust up to 25 kts. Winds ease tonight, and stratus
will likely make a return. Some uncertainty arises with the nature
of the stratus, building high pressure suggests a shallow marine
layer, but a low offshore suggests a deep marine layer. Most models
are suggesting the more shallow option (LIFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities), but ceilings could end up slightly higher.
Regardless, stratus will likely clear again by Saturday afternoon
and afternoon winds are likely to be gusty. JB


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds increase today, with gale force
northerlies and steep seas possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino.
These winds will propagate into the inner waters in the late
afternoon and evening, but remain mostly limited to the outer waters
overnight. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds
further Saturday, especially north of Cape Mendocino. Gale force
gusts up to 40 kts and steep seas are possible in the northern outer
waters. Although the inner waters remain sheltered from the
strongest winds, steep seas may still propagate in from the
northwest. Northerly winds remain elevated for much of the following
week. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ455-475.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png