760
FXUS66 KEKA 311959
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1259 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm conditions continue today with slightly cooler
temperatures Sunday. Gusty winds near shore will start late this
afternoon and continue through Sunday. Warm and dry conditions
for the first week of June are to be expected.

KEY MESSAGES:

-Hot conditions continue Sunday yet a bit cooler than the past few
 days with highs in the mid 90s.

-Strong gusty winds near shore Sunday and Monday afternoon.

-Very slight chance (10%) of isolated dry thunderstorms over high
 terrain on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure near the surface will
continue to strengthen as the isobars get compressed over the
coastline. This will result in gusty winds near protruding coastal
features like Pt. St. George and Cape Mendocino and ridges at
higher elevations. High pressure will gradually eject south and
east with a robust mid level trough stalling over the eastern
Pacific by Sunday. This will setup a very strong pressure gradient
along shore just over the coastal waters. The gradient will
generate very strong north winds throughout the waters but also in
exposed areas along the coast as previously mentioned. Exposed
ridges in the King Range could see gusts as high as 50 mph before
sunset this evening and returning again Sunday evening around the
same time (5-9pm). Stable marine air will generally limit gusts at
lower elevations.

The trough over the Pacific will weaken and move inland by the end
of the weekend and into early next week. As the trough moves inland,
there is some slight potential for isolated thunderstorms over the
interior Sunday or Monday afternoon. The overall chance is currently
low (10%) with lack of moisture being the main issue. Moisture
transport will highly depend on the path of a possible cutoff low
along the coast which remains very uncertain. Any storms that do
form; however, will be dry and may pose a fire weather concern.
Wind along shore will also gradually decrease after Monday, though
some moderate afternoon gusts remain most likely through mid
week. Long range ensembles show generally high confidence in warm,
dry conditions continuing through the first week of June.


&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...IFR conditions along the NW California
coast are slowly eroding into VFR categories. Northerly gusty winds
will dominate coastal and inland terminals. Tonight, a surface
inversion is forecasted to develop. This inversion, if fully formed
can create a decoupling of winds with calm southerly surface winds
and strong northerly winds (30-40kt) at the 1500-2000ft altitude.
Coastal stratus is forecasted to return tonight. However, forecast
confidence is uncertain about the extent of the coverage due to the
variable nature of the surface inversion. If formed, expected IFR to
periods of LIFT ceilings building into tonight. VFR conditions
expected earlier than usual tomorrow due to strong mixing caused by
the gusty northerly winds.


&&

.MARINE...Today is the start of a weather shift bringing extreme
north winds to NW California. A synoptic scale weather system set up
will create a large pressure gradient building and sustaining over
the coastal waters this weekend through the middle of next week at
the earliest. Winds building today will reach gale force gusts by
midday before strengthening even more this evening. Storm force wind
gusts over 50kts are expected by tomorrow morning in the outer
waters with 35-40kts in the inner waters. These unseasonably strong
northerly winds will continue into Monday before dropping down into
strong gale force (40-45kt) by early next week. Gales are forecasted
to continue through the week. Abnormally cold water temperatures due
to deep water upwelling are possible during and after these strong
winds as well.

These winds will create a sea state dominated by very steep, very
large wind waves. Waves will also build sharply with the increasing
winds. Wind waves of 20-25 feet are expected in the outer waters
with 15-20ft seas in the inner waters. The strong winds will
reinforce these winds through the weekend into next week. Seas will
remain above 20ft (outer waters) and 15ft (inner waters) through
Monday.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ107-108-
     111-114-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ475.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

     Storm Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png