361
FXUS66 KEKA 011814
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1114 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...Stratus continues along the coast this
morning. Eddies along the coast are continuously bring lower
ceilings and degraded visibilities to terminals. Conditions are
bouncing between 1/2SM to P6SM for coastal terminals and this is
expected to continue until around 22Z or so when a few hours of
clearing is possible. Light winds (<10kt) are expected today for
coastal areas. Overcast and LIFR conditions are possible tonight,
yet offshore winds could push the marine layer off the coast
enough to keep VFR through the bulk of the evening until around
11Z (+/- 1hr). Inland terminals are expected to have gusty,
upvalley winds this afternoon with VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably hot temperatures will build through the end of the
  week, peaking around Saturday. Such temperatures will generate
  Moderate HeatRisk across the interior.

* Shallow, diurnal marine layer persisting along the coast through
  the weekend.

* Nearly 0% chance of wetting rain for the next 10 days.

SYNOPSIS...High pressure building into the weekend will bring
unseasonably hot and dry conditions to the interior. Morning fog
will be most likely along the coast with quick clearing into the
afternoon. Winds will generally be light.

DISCUSSION...Unusually strong high pressure will build across the
area today and persist through the weekend. For the interior, this
will mean hot and dry conditions with weak terrain winds. Saturday
will most likely be the hottest day with some interior locations
likely to approach 100. Such temperatures are unusual for October.
AT KUKI, for example, NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures hitting
101, which would ties the all time high for the day. Along with
this, Moderate HeatRisk will cover most of the interior with
isolated high Heat Risk in southern Mendocino and Lake Counties.
Longer and cooler nights will generally prevent Heat Risk from
climber higher. Closer to shore, a stronger marine inversion will
promote a shallow but resilient marine layer aided by weak onshore
flow.

Looking further ahead, high pressure will very slowly weaken early
next week, though above average interior temperatures will most
likely linger until mid week. Most models show a weak cutoff low
impacting the area. At most, this low will lift the marine layer and
promote some drizzle. Just a few ensemble members (5%) indicate it
may produce very weak interior thunderstorms around Monday
afternoon. Other than weakening high pressure, there is no impactful
weather on the horizon. There remains a near zero chance of wetting
precipitation for at least the next 10 days. Long Range forecast
suggest this dry pattern is most likely to persist through at least
the second week of October. /JHW

.AVIATION...12z TAF UPDATE...Fog has settled in along the coast
Thursday morning. Morning compression is bringing areas of dense
fog and 1/4SM VIS. Though the layer is shallow, light westerly to
southerly winds around a coastal eddy will likely inhibit morning
improvement. Some afternoon scattering is possible before the
stratus quickly fills back in. The layer is expected to remain
shallow with more fog VIS.

MARINE...Near gale force gusts have pushed away from shore and into
the outer waters Wednesday evening. These winds will gradually
weaken with more moderate to strong wind gusts during the day on
Thursday. Winds will remain remarkably calmer closer to shore.
Steep short period seas over 10 feet will remain in the outer waters
with some steeper seas around 7 feet at 9 seconds pushing into the
inner waters. Beyond short period seas, a very minor southwest swell
is augmenting the sea state. Winds will weaken through the weekend
as high pressure pushes east of the area. Outer water gusts will
most likely drop below 21 kts by Saturday afternoon with seas also
dropping below 5 feet. These more subdued conditions will likely
persist into early next week. /JHW

FIRE WEATHER...Hotter and drier weather building through the
weekend will increase fire danger. Near record high temperatures for
October will aid in ERC values cresting back near the 90th
percentile early next week. That said, very weak terrain winds and
increasingly long nights will prevent Burning Index values from
reaching above the 70th percentile. These values imply fire may be
unusually easy to ignite but spread potential is only moderate.
There is little chance of weather induced ignitions with only a very
minimal (<5%) chance of weak and isolated interior thunderstorms late
this weekend. /JHW

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png