195
FXUS66 KEKA 282108
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
108 PM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A mid period westerly swell will bring a moderate
risk for hazardous beach conditions Saturday afternoon. A much
more energetic westerly swell group will bring a high risk for
sneaker waves Monday through Tuesday next week. Otherwise, dry
and seasonably cool weather is forecast for the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratocumulus clouds banked up against the coastal
ranges have been slowly eroding this afternoon. Gloomy skies
should erode as northerlies and deeper mixing strengthen on Sat
and Sun. A dry shortwave trough will swoop down across the Pacific
NW into the Great Basin over the weekend and serve to re-establish
an offshore wind regime across the area by Sun. Breezy northerly
winds will develop along the coastal headlands and exposed ridges
by Sun. Offshore winds are expected to develop over the higher
terrain across the interior Sun evening and increase into Mon
morning, with the strongest winds anticipated over the eastern
portion of Lake County where gusts up to 25-35 mph are possible.
Frost and freezing morning temperatures will also be possible.
Average low temperatures for this time of year are in the low to
mid 30`s in the interior valleys and agricultural interests have
ended. Frost and freezing morning temperatures could kill tender
plants left outside in the cold.

Above normal 500mb heights and an offshore wind regime will keep
much of Northwest California in a dry weather pattern all next
week. A third shortwave trough may (18% chance) generate a few
fleeting light showers or sprinkles for Del Norte and mountains
of Trinity Mon-Tue. This shorter wavelength trough will carve out
a larger scale trough that will head southward over central and
southern Cal by Wed. Another possible outcome is for the trough
to dig much farther east over the Great Basin with a massive ridge
aloft taking hold over the forecast area by Wed. Blustery N and
E-NE winds will develop Tue night-Wed for the higher terrain and
perhaps Lake County. E-NE wind gusts to 35-45 mph will be possible
over the ridges. The air mass is not forecast to be exceptionally
cold next week either. With dew points in the 20`s, calm winds in
the valleys and clear skies overnight, frost and freezing temperatures
will once again crop up for areas that have not had a so called killing
freeze yet. Fog and low clouds will no doubt (a 100% chance) be a
nightly occurrence in the interior river valleys, especially Humboldt
and Trinity. Cold weather advisories for wind chill may also be
necessary for wind gusts around 10-15 mph. Our long stretch of
dry cool weather may finally come to an end late next week. All
global ensemble systems indicate increasing probabilities for 0.10
inches of precip in 24hr over multiple days from Dec 6 to Dec 8.

&&

.AVIATION...Low clouds have lingered along the coast, especially
along the Humboldt and Mendocino coasts, keeping conditions mostly
MVFR through the day. Intermittent periods of VFR could still
occur late this afternoon for coastal terminals, especially around
Humboldt Bay and the Del Norte coast. Conditions along the coast
will most likely be VFR to MVFR over night, except along the
Mendocino coast, where lower ceilings could occur through the
night. Widespread interior valley fog was extensive into this
morning. This pattern is most likely going to occur again tonight
and into Saturday morning, as well. /JLW

&&

.MARINE...Relatively weak northerly winds will continue through
early Saturday afternoon. The sea state is currently controlled by a
decaying mid period westerly swell that is below 10 feet. Steep seas
due to this swell will diminish through today with mostly calm
conditions headed into early Saturday.

Another mid period westerly swell will begin to build Saturday night
into Sunday, again bringing mostly mild seas up to around 8 feet.
Northerly winds will increase in the outer waters through the day
Sunday, especially south of Cape Mendocino, with some gusts near 30
kts. Winds and steep, short period seas, however, will most likely
remain far from shore with much calmer conditions in the inner
waters, especially for the northern inner zone. The southern waters
will experience small craft conditions through the day Sunday.

Similar northerly winds will continue in the outer waters early next
week. A long period westerly swell up to 10 feet will begin to
impact the waters Monday into Tuesday. Around the same time,
northerly winds will most likely push closer to shore with potential
(40% to 50% chance) for solid gale force conditions around midweek.
/J(H/L)W

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A series of mid period westerly swells will
continue to impact the waters through the weekend. The next swell
will build up to 8 feet at 14 seconds beginning Saturday afternoon
into Sunday. With mostly calm short period seas, the forerunners of
this swell especially will pose a moderate sneaker wave risk
Saturday evening with unexpected and inconsistent surf on area
beaches. A second sneaker wave risk is possible as longer period
swell builds Monday into Tuesday, but the overall risk of this swell
is more uncertain due to the potential for short period seas to push
closer to shore around the same time. In any case, the swell will
increase surf and make local beaches more hazardous. /JHW

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement Saturday afternoon for CAZ101-103.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday afternoon through
     Saturday evening for CAZ104.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday afternoon through
     Saturday evening for CAZ109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PST Sunday for
     PZZ455-470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 11 PM PST
     Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png