729
FXUS66 KEKA 300846
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1246 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A mid period westerly swell will bring a moderate
risk for hazardous beach conditions through Saturday afternoon.
A much more energetic westerly swell will bring a high risk for
sneaker waves Monday through Tuesday. King Tides return on
Tuesday, and peak then on Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, dry and
seasonably cool weather is forecast through next week.


&&
.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and seasonably cool weather expected through the next
  7-days, with a mix of sunshine and clouds.

* Potential for frost and freezing morning temperatures along the
  coastal areas on Monday.

* High risk of sneaker waves is expected along the Northwest
  California beaches from Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* King Tides from December 2nd-7th, and may lead to minor coastal
  flooding in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay, Crescent City
  and Arena Cove.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A semi-stationay upper-level ridge over the
northeastern Pacific, while a shortwave continue to drop
southeast inland into the Great Basin. Abundant high-level clouds
continue to stream south-southwest across Northern California
overnight, while surface observations reported some coastal low
clouds and patchy valley fog. Expect another day with dry and
seasonably cool weather, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Breezy
northerly will continues to develop along the coastal headlands
and exposed ridges today as the surface pressure gradient tighten.
Offshore winds should follow this evening through Monday morning
with perhaps gusts to 25-35 mph over the ridges. The strongest
winds will most likely occur over the eastern portion of Lake
County where gusts from 25 to 35 mph are possible over wind prone
ridges by Monday.

Frost and freezing morning temperatures will also be possible for
coastal areas if the clouds do not reform and dewpoints dry out
near the ocean in response to steady east winds. Granted places
where winds stay up all night, temperatures probably will not even
fall below 45F. Current guidance indicate morning minimums early
Monday above 36F for much of the North Coast. However, NBM
probability indicates there is a 15-25 chance for min temperatures
below 36F around Humboldt Bay and adjacent areas, with up to 80%
chance for McKinleyville. Localized pockets of frost may occur (a
10% chance) along the rest of the NW California Coast.

Another dry shortwave trough will follow a similar track Mon night
and Tue. This trough will dig from NE to SW across the area by
Tue and then offshore the central and southern Cal coast by mid
week. There is an outside chance for a few fleeting light showers
or sprinkles for Del Norte and mountains of Trinity Mon night or
Tue morning, but it will not be a significant precipitation maker
for our forecast area. Once again winds look to be the main impact
with these inside slider troughs. Blustery northerly coastal
winds are expected with this second trough. ECMWF ensemble mean
peak wind gusts are much higher for coastal low lands on Tue.
Gusts around 20-30 mph will be possible. E-NE winds will also
develop Tue night-Wed for the higher terrain and perhaps Lake
County. E-NE wind gusts to 35-45 mph will be possible over the
ridges. Gusts to 50-55 mph are on the limbs of the distribution
(95th percentile) over the high mountain peaks in the King Range.
Now the air mass is not forecast to be exceptionally cold by mid
next week either. With dew points in the 20s, calm winds in the
valleys and clear skies overnight, frost and freezing temperatures
will once again be a forecast challenge for areas that have not
had a freeze yet, especially for coastal areas. Cold weather
advisories for wind chill may also be a factor with winds around
around 5-15 mph and minimum temperatures in the lower to mid 30s.

Massive 500mb ridge appears to flatten out Friday and into next
weekend. WPC ensemble clusters do show about an even split (50%)
of clusters that are "wetter" (at least for the North Coast) than
the grand ensemble mean. The ensemble mean is by no stretch very
wet with 0.10 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 4 PM Sat for
mostly Del Norte. It could be wet or it could be dry or both. Stay
tuned. /ZVS&DUG



&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR to sporadic MVFR ceilings have
arrived along the coast overnight. Model generally suggest similar
conditions, with a very slight risk (30% chance) of IFR ceilings
early Sunday, but building offshore flow will most likely help clear
conditions to VFR even before sunrise. VFR conditions will most
likely continue to intensify through the day Sunday as skies clear,
with the vast majority of ensembles (90%) pointing to VFR conditions
through Sunday night into Monday. /JHW


&&

.MARINE...Currently moderate northerly winds in the outer waters
will continue to increase through the day Sunday with near gale
force gusts up to 30 kts by later int he evening. The inner waters
will remain markedly calmer with few gusts over 15 kts near shore.
Northerly winds will shunt further offshore by Monday afternoon, but
there is good agreement that winds will rapidly return around mid
week and push more into the inner waters with high chances (70%) of
gale force conditions.

Aside from the winds, a minor mid period westerly around 8 feet is
currently impacting the waters and will quickly decay Sunday.
Another, much longer period swell will build around Monday into
Tuesday up to around 12 feet. Neither swell will be particularly
steep but will dominate the inner water sea state where short period
seas are calm. /JHW


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A mid period westerly swell is currently generating
a minor sneaker wave risk. This risk will persist into the morning
but will quickly decrease through the day. A long period swell (up
to 22 seconds) will suddenly build into the waters up to 12 feet
midday Monday and continue into Tuesday. With calm winds near shore,
this swell will pose a high sneaker wave risk with sudden high surf
on beaches in otherwise calm seeming conditions. Take extra care to
keep distance from the water. Building short period seas and
shortening swell period will decrease the risk by Tuesday afternoon.
/JHW


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...King Tides return on Tuesday. High astronomical
tides are predicted from Tuesday through Sunday for Northwest
California. The combination of a high astronomical tides and
steep, short-period northerly waves will increase the risk of
minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay on Wednesday,
including King Salmon and low-lying roads near Arcata Bottoms.
Minor flooding potential in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay,
and along much of the coast is then expected through next Sunday.
/ZVS



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
     morning for CAZ101-103-104-109.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for CAZ113.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PST Sunday for
     PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png