500
FXUS66 KEKA 040955
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
155 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warmer temperatures with a couple slight chances for light rain
  this afternoon and evening and again this weekend.

* Stronger storm systems with heavy rain possible starting around or
  after November 10th.


&&

..SYNOPSIS...Conditions will trend warmer and drier through the week
and into the weekend. A couple fronts will clip the region this
evening and Sunday, bringing chances for light rain. The weather
pattern may trend more active mid to late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain showers have moved out of the area early this
morning with lingering cloud cover slowly subsiding. Rainfall totals
ranged from around 0.1 to just under a half of an inch over eastern
Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake Counties, with just a few hundredths
being reported elsewhere. Lingering cloud cover and ample moisture
will likely support areas of valley clouds and fog, which will also
limit the potential for frost.

A series of strong NE Pacific cyclones will form and impact regions
north of CA in the Pacific Northwest and BC. These storm systems
will send a couple weak, clipping fronts this evening and again
Saturday/Sunday. Light rainfall will be possible, but totals look to
be low. There is a higher chance of rain for the weekend system,
with 40-50% chance for over 0.3 inch of rain for N Humboldt to Del
Norte. This period will have to be watched for some enhanced
southerly winds however, looking at 925mb winds. There is currently
around 30% chance for gusts over 30 mph for the Del Norte ridges and
coast Sat-Sun.

The longer term forecast still holds a signal for a more active
pattern, with ensembles showing the potential for more impactful
storms capable of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Non linear error
growth through the farther extended timeframe leads to over-
amplification of the large Pacific storm systems in the global
models. This is evident in the growing variability in solutions,
with half the clusters depicting 1-2 inches of rainfall and the
other 50% dry through the 11th through 12th of November timeframe.
Chances for over an inch in 24 hours are 45 to 55% over that period.
Strong southerly winds would also be possible. JJW/JB


&&

.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Showers have moved out of NW California and
skies have started to clear. VFR conditions are likely at all
terminals overnight, aside from 20-30% chances for ground fog from
recent rains. Any low ceilings will lift and scatter shortly after
sunrise. A weak front moving north of the area will bring a roughly
30% chance of rain in the afternoon and evening to the Del Norte
Coast. JB


&&


.MARINE...Winds diminish and turn northerly today while seas subside
as both short period seas and a large northwest swell decays.
Northerly winds increase again Wednesday night into Thursday with 20
to 25 kt sustained winds expected south of Cape Mendocino. Moderate
winds are possible north of the Cape Thursday afternoon, as well.
Another long period northwest swell at around 10 to 11 ft arrives
Thursday, which will keep the sea state elevated. Combined seas of
12 to 14 ft are possible as this swell combines with steep seas.
Northerly winds peak Thursday and gradually subside again Friday and
into the weekend. JB


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An eastward propagating, strong Aleutian low will
deliver a second long period WNW swell. The swell will arrive late
Thursday with periods up to 20 seconds. The swell will peak at
around 12 ft at 17 seconds Friday, bringing another risk for sneaker
waves.

Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between
waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without
warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and
beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as
logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep
water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits.
Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to
stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently.
Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean!


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...The positive tidal anomaly has increased
again, continuing bring tides higher than predicted. The increased
southerly winds brought tides 1.8 ft higher than forecast Tuesday at
the North Spit gauge. Tides are officially forecast to reach 7.4 to
7.5 ft at North Spit on the 7th through 10th of November. The
current range of tidal anomalies would bring tides up to and over
the advisory level of 8.8 ft, and minor coastal flooding around
Humboldt Bay. There will likely be periods of stronger southerly
winds through those days, bringing higher confidence to at least
minor coastal flooding, and perhaps some moderate.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for
     PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png