111
FXUS66 KEKA 302149
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
249 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Light rain likely for Saturday.

* Additional light rain early next week

* Heavier rain possible with stronger Pacific storm systems remain
  in the week two extended forecast


&&

.SYNOPSIS...More isolated areas of frost and freezing temperatures
Friday night. A cold front will bring light rainfall with some
possible isolated embedded thunderstorms Saturday through Saturday
night. Additional light rainfall at times next week, some chances for
heavier rainfall in the extended forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain chances increase Saturday morning as a NE
Pacific trough moves in. Rainfall totals will be on the low side
with the trough. The trough will turn negatively titled on approach
and will contain some instability, so locally heavier rainfall
amounts and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms are possible given
the associated dynamics. This cold trough will lower snow levels and
may bring small accumulations near 0.5 inch over Scott Mountain
pass.

The increasing cloudcover will limit coverage of frost and
subfreezing temperatures where the growing season remains active,
but areas of frost are expected through Mendocino and Lake counties.

A transient ridge will pass through Monday ahead of another
trough, brining slightly warmer and drier conditions. Chances for
light rainfall arrive late Monday and increase Tuesday. There is
only a 30 to 40% chance for rainfall over 0.1 inch for the area
with that trough. A deeper low with a stronger front is modeled
for late next week. This could bring some higher rainfall amounts
and round of gusty southerly winds, but it does look to weaken as
it nears the N CA coast. Rainfall chances for over 0.5 inch are
currently only 25% for that system.

For the extended forecast, the longer term guidance continues to
outline a stretch of more active weather and atmospheric river
potential over week two, somewhere near or after the 9th. Models
guidance can overestimate storm strength in the extended through the
transition into the wet season, but the signal seems to be becoming
more consistent and bears watching. JJW

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across much of the area this
afternoon. These are expected to continue through the evening.
Towards morning a frontal boundary is expected to start
approaching the area. This is expected to start lowering ceilings
and will likely bring some showers to the area Saturday morning.
Currently the models are showing fairly low probabilities of CIGS
lowering very much. This may be underdone and cigs will drop lower
in the rain. MKK

&&

.MARINE...The waves remain fairly small with mainly just a couple
of swells. One out of the northwest at 11 seconds around 4 feet
and is expected to diminish tonight. The other one is out of the
south around 2 feet at 14 seconds. Northerly winds have increased
briefly in the southern to around 10 to 15 kt. Late tonight and
Saturday winds will be less than ten kt. Some of these may be
southerly as a weak front moves through on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday northerly winds are expected to return
again as high pressure builds in briefly. The most recent models
are showing this to be fairly short lived and the northerly winds
may not be very strong on the northern waters. Fairly light winds
are expected on Monday with southerly winds starting as early as
Tuesday.

Also of a note, a very long period northwest swell is expected to
start moving into the waters Sunday late in the afternoon.
Initial waves are expected to be around 2 feet at 21 seconds. This
will likely bring some fairly big sets of larger waves
interspersed with smaller waves overnight and into Monday. This
may show up on the shoals near harbor entrances. MKK

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A very long period northwest swell is expected
to start moving into the waters Sunday late in the afternoon.
Initial waves are expected to be around 2 feet at 21 seconds. This
is expected to start bringing a sneaker wave threat Sunday
evening. These are expected to build to around around 6 feet at 17
seconds Monday morning. The be large enough to bring some fairly
big sets of larger waves interspersed with smaller waves Monday
morning. This is a fairly classic sneaker wave scenario with
fairly limited waves besides this one. A beach hazard statement
may be needed as it gets closer. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
    Frost Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM PDT Saturday
    for CAZ110-111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png