578
FXUS66 KEKA 051129
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
329 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warmer temperatures with additional chances for light rain this
  weekend.

* Stronger storm systems with heavy rain possible starting around or
  after November 10th.

* Minor to possibly near moderate coastal flooding is likely around
  Humboldt Bay from November 7th to 10th.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...Conditions will trend warmer and drier through the week
and into the weekend. Another front will clip the area late Saturday
into early Sunday, bringing chances for light rain for isolated
areas. The weather pattern continues to look to trend more active
mid to late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A series of strong NE Pacific cyclones will form and
impact regions north of CA in the Pacific Northwest and BC. These
storm systems sent a weak front over far NW California Tuesday
evening and another one is expected Saturday evening into Sunday.
There is a higher chance of rain for the weekend system, with 30-50%
chance for over a half inch of rain for N Humboldt to Del Norte.
Though the much stronger winds will be farther north over Oregon,
some recent model runs have trended the trough farther south, so the
wind threat will need to be watched for the Del Norte area.
Currently probabilities for gusts over 35 mph are low for the coast
and ridges of Del Norte.

The NE Pacific troughs that pass well to the north will amplify
ridging over the west. Temperatures will trend warmer in response.
Ridging will peak Saturday when highs in some of the interior
valleys are forecast to reach the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and this
will be 10 to up to 20 degrees above average for the time of year.

The longer term forecast still holds a signal for a more active
pattern, with ensembles showing the potential for more impactful
storms capable of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Non linear error
growth through the farther extended timeframe leads to over-
amplification of the large Pacific storm systems in the global
models. This is evident in the growing variability in solutions,
with half the clusters depicting 1-2 inches of rainfall and the
other 50% dry through the 11th through 12th of November timeframe
with slightly better agreement later in the 12-13th. Strong
southerly winds would also be probable with an atmospheric river
type of weather system. JJW


&&

.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...A weak front is moving out of the area and
skies are expected to mostly clear outside some of the interior
river valleys. UKI is unlikely to see fog again early this morning,
but still chances for lower ceilings or visibilities are around 15%.
Chances of VFR conditions remaining at the coast through sunrise are
over 60%, but some occasional MVFR ceilings are possible at CEC. Any
clouds will lift and scatter by late morning. Winds generally remain
light aside for northwest afternoon breezes of up to 10 to 15 kts. JB


&&


.MARINE...Northerly winds gradually build today peaking in the late
afternoon and evening with 20 to 25 kt sustained winds south of Cape
Mendocino and 10 to 15 kt winds north of the Cape. Steep seas are
possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino with these winds. A mid period
northwest swell of 8 to 10 ft arrives today which will keep seas
elevated. Combined significant wave heights may reach up to 12 ft.
Winds will ease Friday and into the weekend, but additional
northwest swells will keep combined seas above 10 ft through at
least Saturday.

Northerly winds are expected to weaken Friday and into the weekend
as a weather system turns them southerly Saturday night into Sunday.
The strength of these winds is still uncertain, but some moderate to
near-gale force south winds are possible depending how far south
this trough reaches. Behind this there is the potential for an even
larger swell. The most recent model run is showing this building to
around 13 to 15 feet at 15 seconds. However, previous model runs
have shown this swell height as high as 17 ft. JB/MKK

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An eastward propagating, strong Aleutian low will
deliver a second long period WNW swell. The swell will arrive late
Thursday with periods up to 20 seconds. The swell will peak at
around 11 to 13 ft at 17 seconds Friday, bringing a low to moderate
risk for sneaker waves.

Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between
waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without
warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and
beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as
logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep
water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits.
Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to
stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently.
Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean!



&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...The positive tidal anomaly remains increased
again, continuing bring tides higher than predicted. The increased
southerly winds brought tides around 1.5 ft higher than forecast
Wednesday at the North Spit gauge. Tides are officially forecast to
reach 7.4 to 7.5 feet at North Spit on the 7th through 10th of
November. The current range of tidal anomalies would bring tides up
to and over the advisory level of 8.8 ft, and minor coastal flooding
around Humboldt Bay. There will likely be periods of stronger
southerly winds through those days, bringing higher confidence to at
least minor coastal flooding, and perhaps near moderate.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Friday
     evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ106-110-
     111-114-118.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ450-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png