829
FXUS66 KEKA 190822
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1222 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving front will bring moderate rainfall and
breezy southerly winds Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Drier
and cooler conditions bring chances for interior frost into the
end of the week while daytime highs warm Friday and through the
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The stratus deck has largely been preventing more
widespread radiational fog development early Wednesday morning,
mainly outside of the interior valleys. Clearing skies closer to
the coast would giveaway to quick shallow fog development
Wednesday morning after all the recent rainfall.

An approaching frontal system will increase rain chances
throughout the day as southerly winds increase ahead of the front.
Wind gusts will reach 20 to 30 mph, with some gusts over 40 mph
for coastal Del Norte, the King Range, and the prominent coastal
headlands and interior ridges. These stronger winds will be
shorter lived and mainly with the frontal passage Wednesday night.
NBM is generally showing low chances for gusts over 30 mph, so
there is still some question of the magnitude of winds that mix
down to the surface.

A burst of widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall (up to
0.3 inches per hour) is expected with this front. There is a
moderate probability (40 to 60%) for 24 hour rainfall over 0.75
inch from Southern Humboldt to Del Norte. The rain shadow from
downsloping southeast winds will lower amounts for locations such
as around Humboldt Bay. There is better chances and higher
confidence for rain amounts over 0.5 inch.

Snow levels will drop Wednesday night to 5000-5500 ft, but lower
precipitation potential in Trinity County will only support a
dusting at Highway 3 around Scott Mountain Pass. Conditions
quickly improve by Thursday morning with only some lingering
showers continuing by Thursday afternoon.

Another break in the wet weather returns Friday and into the
weekend as high pressure noses in from the west. Daytime high will
rebound back to warm values Friday and through the weekend for
most of the region. Chilly overnight temperatures are likely,
which could lead to widespread frost as early as Friday morning if
cloud cover clears out. Interior valley fog would lower chances
for colder temperatures however. An additional system is possible
early next week, but ensembles are starting to trend this system
northward. Even high- end precipitation amounts (75th percentile)
are only showing 0.25 amounts clipping Del Norte County JJW


&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)...Brief MVFR vsbys this early Wednesday
morning may occur for coastal terminals, especially around Humboldt
Bay. IFR conditions are expected to redevelop in the interior
valleys early Wednesday morning. KUKI will continue to have IFR
conditions through the night with the residual moisture and light
southerly flow feeding coastal stratus northward. Toward the end of
the forecast period, MVFR cigs may (50% chance) spread back out over
the coastal plain around Humboldt Bay and over KACV after 14-16Z Wed
as winds turn south-southeasterly in advance of a front. Low level
wind shear and shallow severe turbulence will be possible (20%
chance) for over the coastal mountains and coastal airfields after
00z Thu as a 35kt+ low level barrier jet develops.


&&

.MARINE...Strong northerly winds will continue to diminish very
early Wednesday morning and will turn southerly by mid to late
morning. These southerly winds are projected to strengthen ahead of
an incoming front that will move through the coastal waters late
Wednesday and into early Thursday morning. HREF depicts a 30 to 40
percent probability for gale force gusts late Wednesday evening in
the northern outer waters (PZZ470). HREF depicts a slightly higher
probability for a brief period of gale force gusts from about
Trinidad Head to the Oregon border late Wednesday evening. Gusts >
34 kt are certainly expected inside 10NM for a brief period,
however, especially around headlands.

Large W-NW swell will begin to build Wed night and reach 15-17 feet
at 13-15 seconds by Thu morning. This swell will combine with short
period wind waves and seas will once again become quite hazardous. A
warning for seas may be necessary. Otherwise, northerly winds and
steep wind waves are generally forecast to prevail through the
remainder of the week. A series of large W-NW swell groups will also
propagate into the waters Thu through Sun.



&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A large W-NWswell will arrive Thursday and will
generate surf breakers near or above 20 ft.

A long period W-NWswell from 8-12 ft with dominant periods near
16 seconds is forecast to build over the weekend. This swell may
pose a moderate risk for sneaker waves as well as continued
erosion of beach profiles. Stay tuned.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ450-
     455.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PST this evening for PZZ470.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ475.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png