076
FXUS66 KEKA 300736
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1236 AM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some coastal drizzle possible Friday with more widespread light
  rain likely for Saturday.

* Briefly warmer, drier, and clearer conditions Monday and Tuesday.

* More and heavier rain possible beyond Wednesday but timing is
  highly uncertain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry weather is expected to continue through
Friday. A weak weather system is expected to bring some light rain
on Saturday. Dry and warmer weather is expected Sunday through
Tuesday with more rain possible Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough is continuing to gradually dip
south along the Pacific Coast. The trough will continue to weaken
north winds close shore Friday will also lifting up marine influence
along shore. Very light drizzle will be possible along the North
Coast Friday evening the marine layer lifts. Otherwise, the trough
will continue to support cool and moist weather all across NW
California.

A weak cold front will cross the area during he day Saturday. Only
very weak south wind is expected ahead of the front. There is a
broad 35% chance of wetting rain with the front across the area.
Potential for more than 0.25 inches is less than 10%.  Weak winds
will make for little terrain enhancement overall. Snow levels are
expected to be around 5,000 feet with this system making it one of
the colder weather systems so far this season.

Sunday morning the rain is expected to come to an end. Widespread
low clouds and possibly fog in the valleys is expected to keep the
valleys from getting too cold Sunday morning,. High temperatures are
expected to only be in the mid 50s to low 60s on Sunday. High
pressure starts to build in on Monday and highs in the mid to upper
60s are expected in the interior. Shady areas will likely remain
notably cooler. This warmer and dry weather is expected to continue
into Tuesday. Nights will be chilly, especially Monday morning in
areas that clear out with drier air behind the front. Tuesday
morning may be warmer in some areas, but also drier and there may be
less clouds around.

Wednesday and beyond is the next chance for rain. Ensemble clusters
continue to show a strong signal of an atmospheric river pattern
setting up November 4th and beyond with each day though the 11th
having about a 30% chance of wetting rain. While the pattern has
high confidence, timing remains very uncertain. Ensembles are
starting to resolve a period of higher chances around next Friday
with a 65% chance of wetting rain that day rather than 30%. Should
an AR occur that day, potential for more than 1.0 inch of rain is
around 20%. /JHW, MKK


&&

.AVIATION...A weak and ragged marine layer has continued to allow
mostly VFR conditions again all along the coast. High resolution
models suggest a roughly 35% chance of some IFR ceilings by sunrise.
Light drizzle in a lifting marine layer may create periods of MVFR
conditions Friday afternoon but others VFR conditions are expected
to persist with a still inconsistent marine layer Friday night.
/JHW


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds have mostly died off with only isolated
gusts now over 20 kts in the southern outer waters. steep short
period seas are also quickly falling below 6 feet. By early Friday
morning, seas will generally fall below 6 feet with gentle winds
across the waters. Weak winds will persist into the weekend with
some briefly southerlies possible Saturday as a front passes. Weak
short period seas will allow minor west and southwest mid period
swells to have more impact. Northerlies will slowly return early
next week. A notable long period swell up to 7 feet at 18 seconds is
on track to build in Monday. Though not particularly steep, this
swell has the potential for increased sneaker wave risk and will
need to be tracked closely. /JHW


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...Water levels Thursday reached 9.0 ft above
MLLW at the North Spit. This brought some minor flooding to low
lying areas of King Salmon and the Arcata bottoms. This was with an
anomaly of about 1.1 foot above astronomical tides. The surge models
are showing a slightly higher anomaly during the high tide Friday
(at 2:51 PM), and with an astronomical tide of 7.50 ft, this would
again push levels around 8.6 or 8.7 ft, just shy of most coastal
flood impacts. As such, an advisory has not been issued for the
moment though conditions will be borderline.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Frost Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for CAZ103-105-
     106-110-111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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