605
FXUS66 KEKA 092215
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
315 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will slowly continue to warm peak on
Monday. Gloomy stratus will continue to blanket the coast for most
of the weekend with some possible clearing Monday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High interior temperatures will peak Sunday and Monday with
moderate HeatRisk in Mendocino and Lake Counties.

-Gloomy coastal skies will continue with potential scattering out on
Monday.

-Cooler temperatures and slight thunderstorm and coastal drizzle
potential around Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has continued to inch itself over the
area, helping to further notch up interior high temperatures in the
mid 80s. Otherwise, interior conditions have remain clear, calm, and
dry. A strong but shallower marine inversion has remained stubborn
today with gloomy clouds all along the coast. This is likely to
continue through Saturday night at least.

High pressure will continue to build through Sunday and into early
next week. High temperatures will most likely peak around Monday.
Interior highs will most likely reach the low to mid 90s. Solidly
above average temperatures will promote generally minor to moderate
Heat Risk with the greatest risk in Lake County due to warm
conditions continuing overnight. A shallow marine layer along shore
will likely make for more scattered skies in the afternoon. chances
look slim (only 30% chance of scattering) for Sunday, though some
moderate north wind near shore could help scatter clouds. The marine
layer will be shallowest on Monday with the greatest chance of
clearing. Should skies clear enough, coastal temperatures could
reach into the mid 60s on Monday.

Most model ensemble members show a cutoff low forming up along shore
mid to late next week. This low will help slightly weaken high
pressure and drop interior temperatures. It will also help provide
some instability to the coast, helping lift the marine layer and
perhaps creating drizzle, though overcast skies will most likely
remain. This low could bring a threat of thunderstorms, but most
models show it staying too dry and too far offshore to bring much
risk. Most thunderstorm potential peaks around Wednesday is no more
than 10% at the moment in most models. /JHW

&&

.AVIATION...The stubborn stratus along the Redwood coast continues.
Satellite imagery shows cloud coverage steadily eroding from major
coastal river valleys, while ebbing and flowing at the coastline.
The HREF model shows a significant chance (~70%) that this cloud
bank erodes all the way past coastal terminal by 21Z (+/-1hr)
through 03Z (+/-1hr). However, the LAMP Probabilities are not so
optimistic with only a 50% chance of ceilings out of MVFR through
that time with IFR returning again tonight. The forecast remains
MVFR through the day. A tempo group has been added for any VFR gaps
in cloud coverage that develop. Overcast conditions very likely to
return to coastal terminals tonight with IFR/periodic LIFR
conditions. Inland terminals can expect VFR with gusty, terrain-
focused afternoon winds.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds trend stronger today. Areas south of Cape
Mendocino are forecasted to have near gale to gale force gusts.
WHile there is high confidence in these winds, the coverage is not
enough to warn for the entire coastal forecast zone (PZZ475). The
northern outer waters will experience the lower part of a speed
maximum of Cape Blanco, OR. These northerly winds relax slightly
overnight before returning even stronger Sunday afternoon. The sea
state will be composed of steep, northerly short period waves and a
mid period westerly swell. Small craft advisories have been hoisted
due to the threatening strong winds and steep seas. The winds calm
and the sea state lowers by the beginning of the coming work week.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png