324
FXUS66 KEKA 020805
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1205 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Briefly warmer and drier conditions today.

* Another round of light to locally moderate rain likely Tuesday.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting around November
  10th.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier conditions continue Monday before
another weak cold front with light rain crosses the area around
Tuesday. COnditions will then remain mild and mostly dry through the
end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A drier and warmer airmass continues to build today
bringing clearer skies and warmer interior high temperatures. Clear
skies overnight may allow for some morning frost this morning in the
coldest interior valleys of Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity
Counties. High temperatures today warm to the 60s to nearly 70 in
the warmest valleys. High cloud cover is expected to keep
temperatures moderated somewhat, but should cloud cover be thin
enough, some interior areas may exceed 70.

A front arrives early Tuesday bringing light to locally moderate
rain and breezy southeasterly winds. There is around a 70-90% chance
for Mendocino and Lake Counties to see over a quarter inch of rain.
Chances diminish sharply north and west of Cape Mendocino. The range
of rainfall is around 0.2 to 0.5 inches for much of Mendocino and
Lake Counties. While unlikely, there is a 20% chance for over an
inch along the Mendocino Coast. Conversely, the Humboldt and Del
Norte Coasts have a 30-50% chance to see no measurable rainfall.
Breezy southeast winds are likely ahead of the frontal passage
Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible along the
coast and ridges. Localized higher gusts of 40 mph or higher are
possible in the King Range.

Behind this system, most ensemble members show weak high pressure
building through at least Saturday. NBM continues to show low (20%
or lower) chances for measurable precipitation over Del Norte and
Humboldt Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, however this may only be a
few sprinkles or coastal drizzle. Temperatures will gradually
increase with peak temperatures around Saturday. Similarly, a marine
layer near shore becomes more likely as the week goes on. Long range
models suggest the next chance for heavier rainfall is around
November 10th with a 50% chance of rainfall over 1.0 inch in that
period. JB/JHW


&&

.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...VFR conditions are likely at the terminals
for the next 24 hours as the marine inversion remains weak and
offshore winds remain persistent overnight. There is a low chance
(around 20%) for IFR to MVFR ceilings along the coast for a few
hours near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR ceilings will stream in over the
day. JB


&&

.MARINE...North winds and lingering steep seas continue to diminish
as low pressure approaches the area. Otherwise, seas are dominated
by a long period NW swell that peaks around 7 ft this afternoon and
evening. A long period south swell of around 3 ft also remains
persistent. A modest cold front is expected to pass early Tuesday
with moderate south winds of 20 to 30 kts. Isolated and brief gale
force gusts are possible early Tuesday morning. Winds ease and turn
northerly midweek. /JB


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A very long period northwest swell has arrived and
is currently around 5 feet at 20 seconds as of late Sunday night.
This will peak near 7 feet today. This will bring an extreme threat
for sneaker waves as winds remain light and other wave groups remain
limited. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through this evening
for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long
period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves.
Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning,
sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid
jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ101-103-
     104-109.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for CAZ106-110-
     111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM PST
     Tuesday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png